Egocentric economic voting models are widely used in studies of voting behaviour in Great Britain: they suggest that people whose standard of living has risen recently as a perceived consequence of government policies are more likely to vote for the government's return to office than are those who blame government policies for a decline in their living standards. But many people whose living standards have increased vote against the government. Analyses reported here, using specially constructed bespoke neighbourhoods around the homes of respondents to the 1997 British Election Study, show that the latter group mainly live in areas of high local unemployment. This suggests a pattern of altruistic voting, of people who are prospering personally, but whose neighbours are not, voting against the incumbent government—a pattern confirmed by statistical analyses of both egocentric and sociotropic voting.
We welcome Mohan’s (2004) suggestion for a debate as to whether Britain is polarisingsocially and, if so, with what importance. Below we address his specific points but inshort our response is that more work is required by more workers. There is a majorproblem with our response. Fewer and fewer researchers in UK geography departmentsand in the rest of social science more widely are in a position to carry out such work.The 2001 Census is more complex in structure than the last three censuses combined,but fewer and fewer social scientists have the skills needed to study it, let alonecompare what this census reveals with the past. The debate over whether Britain ispolarising or not has tended to take place in an information vacuum. The participantsin the debate in human geography quote the work of a shrinking number of researcherswho produce the initial findings, often misinterpreting those findings (Dorling andShaw, 2002). Rarely now do social scientists undertake their own analysis of sourcedata such as the census as part of their contribution to a debate. If there is to be adebate about whether there is overall polarisation, the extent to which it is occurring,and the importance of British society becoming more polarised, it needs to be based asmuch upon facts, as upon feelings.John Mohan is in good company when he begins his response by stating that themajority of the indicators we measured showed reduced polarisation. George Davey-Smith also found time to compute that 52 indicators showed increased polarisation and62 showed narrowing of polarisation.
Anecdote is the singular of data Danny Dorling Do we care about area effects? George Smith, Michael Noble, Gemma Wright Evidence-based policy and practice Roger Burrows, Jonathan Bradshaw Is there a place for area-based initiatives? Heather Joshi On reinvented wheels Charles Pattie Multilevel modeling might not be the answer Richard Mitchell Unemployment, nonemployment, and labour-market disadvantage Anne E Green Reply: Ward-level deprivation and individual social and economic outcomes in the British Household Panel Study Andrew McCulloch
This very short and readable book tackles the criticism of those who say ‘well, the poor will always be with us’. Julia Unwin explains that such people badly quote from the New Testament ‘out of it...
The reduction of inequalities in the labour market both between ethnic groups and between local areas indicates improved access to jobs because a diverse workforce is socially and economically desirable. We construct and analyse a unique evidence base of the labour-market circumstances at the neighbourhood level. We use the 2001 Census data for England and Wales to examine the impact of age, sex, birthplace, and educational qualifications on the employment of ethnic minorities nationally. We compute locally expected employment on the basis of these relationships and local characteristics, and compare it with locally observed employment. Our analysis demonstrates that 1.1 million new jobs are required to bring every ethnic group in every locality up to the average England and Wales employment rate. National ethnic-group differences account for most of this local job deficit; local variation in demographic composition and human capital account for a smaller proportion of the jobs deficit. Residual neighbourhood effects have both a geography common to each ethnic group (for example, a gradient of higher jobs deficits in the Midlands, the North of England, and Wales), and some group-specific characteristics (for example, more favourable outcomes for Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups in the North than might have been expected). The findings and approach allow targeting employment policies geographically and thematically. In addition, the on-line evidence base ( http://asp.ccsr.ac.uk/dwp ) is a public resource which can be used to investigate local outcomes and to prioritise remedial action.
'%3e%3cpath fill='%23012169' d='M0 0v30h60V0z'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='6' d='m0 0 60 30m0-30L0 30'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='4' d='m0 0 60 30m0-30L0 30' clip-path='url(%23b)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='10' d='M30 0v30M0 15h60'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='6' d='M30 0v30M0 15h60'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
'/%3e%3c/defs%3e%3cpath fill='%23012169' d='M0 0h10080v5040H0z'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='.6' d='m0 0 6 3m0-3L0 3' clip-path='url(%23b)' transform='scale(840)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23e4002b' stroke-width='.4' d='m0 0 6 3m0-3L0 3' clip-path='url(%23c)' transform='scale(840)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='840' d='M2520 0v2520M0 1260h5040'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23e4002b' stroke-width='504' d='M2520 0v2520M0 1260h5040'/%3e%3cg fill='%23fff'%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' x='2520' y='3780'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' x='7560' y='4200'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' x='6300' y='2205'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' x='7560' y='840'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' x='8680' y='1869'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23e' x='8064' y='2730'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
