Abstract Cyclones in the Arctic are detected and tracked in four different reanalysis data sets from 1981 to 2010. In great detail the spatial and seasonal patterns of changes are scrutinized with regards to their frequencies, depths, and sizes. We find common spatial patterns for their occurrences, with centers of main activity over the seas in winter, and more activity over land and over the North Pole in summer. The deep cyclones are more frequent in winter, and the number of weak cyclones peaks in summer. Overall, we find a good agreement of our tracking results across the different reanalyses. Regarding the frequency changes, we find strong decreases in the Barents Sea and along the Russian coast toward the North Pole and increases over most of the central Arctic Ocean and toward the Pacific in winter. Areas of increasing and decreasing frequencies are of similar size in winter. In summer there is a longish region of increase from the Laptev Sea toward Greenland, over the Canadian archipelago, and over some smaller regions west of Novaya Zemlya and over the Russia. The larger part of the Arctic experiences a frequency decrease. All the summer changes are found statistically unrelated to the winter patterns. In addition, the frequency changes are found unrelated to changes in cyclone depth and size. There is generally good agreement across the different reanalyses in the spatial patterns of the trend sign. However, the magnitudes of changes in a particular region may strongly differ across the data.

Archipelago

10.1002/2017jd027439

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Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)

Anthropocene (2023)

Mirseid Akperov А. В. Елисеев Annette Rinke И. И. Мохов В. А. Семенов

10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100402

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Citations (4)

Cloudiness and sea ice mutual variations in the Antarctic: dependence on Antarctic Oscillation

А. V. Chernokulsky И. И. Мохов

Oscillation (cell signaling)

Source

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Action as an integral characteristic of climatic structures: Estimates for atmospheric blockings

Doklady Earth Sciences (2006)

И. И. Мохов

10.1134/s1028334x06060201

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Citations (32)

Regional model assessments of forest fire risks in the Asian part of Russia under climate change

Geography and Natural Resources (2010)

И. И. Мохов А. V. Chernokulsky

10.1016/j.gnr.2010.06.012

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Citations (31)

Estimates of the dependence of snow cover extent on surface air temperature variations of the Northern Hemisphere for the last several decades

Maria R. Parfenova M. M. Arzhanov И. И. Мохов

<p>Understanding the ongoing climate change is impossible without evaluating the contributions of both anthropogenic and natural variabilities. In present paper, natural variability is examined by estimating the dependence of snow cover extent on surface air temperature variations of the Northern Hemisphere for the last several decades.&#160;The relationship was evaluated with correlation analysis of the results of simulations with the ensemble of global climate models CMIP6 and the respected satellite and ERA5 reanalyzes data. The estimated snow cover extent sensitivity to the temperature changes for the last four decades (1979 2019) has been compared with that obtained for the last fifteen years (2005&#8211;2019). Seasonal features of the snow cover extent temperature relationship have been noted, particularly during the formation of snow cover in autumn. An increase in the absolute value of the sensitivity parameter of the snow cover extent to the surface air temperature changes is noted, with an overall statistically insignificant negative correlation for the last four decades.</p>

Surface air temperature

10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12730

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