Nelson Venegas‐Cordero

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management

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Mikołaj Piniewski

Warsaw University of Life Sciences

Paweł Marcinkowski

Warsaw University of Life Sciences

Christian Birkel

Universidad de Costa Rica

Marta Stachowicz

Institute of Environmental Engineering

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

University of Life Sciences in Poznań

Ana María Durán‐Quesada

Universidad de Costa Rica

Kenneth Gutiérrez‐García

Universidad de Costa Rica

René Capell

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

S. Ignar

Warsaw University of Life Sciences

Javier Vasquez‐Morera

Universidad de Costa Rica

Cooperative Institutions

Universidad de Costa Rica

Warsaw University of Life Sciences

Institute of Environmental Engineering

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management

University of Aberdeen

Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries

University of Warsaw

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

University of Edinburgh

Marine Scotland

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Two centuries of changes - revision of the hydrography of the Biebrza Valley, its transformation and probable ecohydrological challenges

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology (2023)

Marta Stachowicz Nelson Venegas‐Cordero Pouya Ghezelayagh

Drainage network

10.1016/j.ecohyd.2023.08.008

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Citations (6)

Headwaters drive streamflow and lowland tracer export in a large‐scale humid tropical catchment

Hydrological Processes (2020)

Christian Birkel Alicia Correa Marco Martinez‐Martinez Sebastián Granados-Bolaños Nelson Venegas‐Cordero

Abstract Headwaters are generally assumed to contribute the majority of water to downstream users, but how much water, of what quality and where it is generated are rarely known in the humid tropics. Here, using monthly monitoring in the data scarce (2,370 km 2 ) San Carlos catchment in northeastern Costa Rica, we determined runoff‐area relationships linked to geochemical and isotope tracers. We established 46 monitoring sites covering the full range of climatic, land use and geological gradients in the catchment. Regression and cluster analysis revealed unique spatial patterns and hydrologically functional landscape units. These units were used for seasonal and annual Bayesian tracer mixing models to assess spatial water source contributions to the outlet. Generally, the Bayesian mixing analysis showed that the chemical and isotopic imprint at the outlet is throughout the year dominated by the adjacent lowland catchments (68%) with much less tracer influence from the headwaters. However, the headwater catchments contributed the bulk of water and tracers to the outlet during the dry season (>50%) despite covering less than half of the total catchment area. Additionally, flow volumes seemed to be linearly scaled by area maintaining a link between the headwaters and the outlet particularly during high flows of the rainy season. Stable isotopes indicated mean recharge elevations above the mean catchment altitude, which further supports that headwaters were the primary source of downstream water. Our spatially detailed “snap‐shot” sampling enabled a viable alternative source of large‐scale hydrological process knowledge in the humid tropics with limited data availability.

TRACER

Base flow

Wet season

Catchment hydrology

Dry season

10.1002/hyp.13841

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Citations (16)

Model-based assessment of flood generation mechanisms over Poland: The roles of precipitation, snowmelt, and soil moisture excess

The Science of The Total Environment (2023)

Nelson Venegas‐Cordero Cyrine Cherrat Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Jitendra Singh Mikołaj Piniewski

Hydrometeorological variability, such as changes in extreme precipitation, snowmelt, or soil moisture excess, in Poland can lead to fluvial flooding. In this study we employed the dataset covering components of the water balance with a daily time step at the sub-basin level over the country for 1952-2020. The data set was derived from the previously calibrated and validated Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for over 4000 sub-basins. We applied the Mann Kendall test and circular statistics-based approach on annual maximum floods and various potential flood drivers to estimate the trend, seasonality, and relative importance of each driver. In addition, two sub-periods (1952-1985 and 1986-2020) were considered to examine changes in flood mechanism in the recent decades. We show that floods in the northeast Poland were decreasing, while in the south the trend showed a positive behavior. Moreover, the snowmelt is a primary driver of flooding across the country, followed by soil moisture excess and precipitation. The latter seemed to be the dominant driver only in a small, mountain-dominated region in the south. Soil moisture excess gained importance mainly in the northern part, suggesting that the spatial pattern of flood generation mechanisms is also governed by other features. We also found a strong signal of climate change in large parts of northern Poland, where snowmelt is losing importance in the second sub-period in favor of soil moisture excess, which can be explained by the temperature warming and diminishing role of snow processes.

Snowmelt

Hydrometeorology

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164626

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Diverging Projections of Future Droughts in High‐End Climate Scenarios for Different Potential Evapotranspiration Methods: A National‐Scale Assessment for Poland

International Journal of Climatology (2024)

Paweł Marcinkowski Mohammad Reza Eini Nelson Venegas‐Cordero Maciej Jefimow Mikołaj Piniewski

ABSTRACT It has been broadly reported that future climate change will most likely affect the spatio‐temporal distribution of water resources and consequently droughts. There is a prevailing notion that an increase in temperature and frequency of heat waves are expected to result in more intense droughts in the coming years. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effect of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) method selection on future drought projections over Poland. In our study, simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were conducted, utilising an ensemble of six EURO‐CORDEX projections, spanning the period from 2006 to 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two model setups with two different PET methods (Penman‐Monteith—PM and Hargreaves—HAR) were used. For drought conditions evaluation we selected the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological drought, Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) for hydrological drought, and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SMI) for agricultural drought. The meteorological and hydrological droughts were calculated using a 12‐month time aggregation window, while agricultural drought was calculated using a 3‐month window. Climate projections revealed that by 2080s annual mean temperature and precipitation increase is expected by up to +3.4°C and +10.3% respectively. Under future climate conditions duration and severity of meteorological droughts are projected to decrease. PM method leads to a higher PET increases (1.35 mm year −1 ) than the HAR method (1.1 mm year −1 ) throughout the century which entail diverging signal of change for agricultural and hydrological droughts. PM‐ and HAR‐based simulations indicate increase in the total duration and cumulative severity of agricultural droughts, buthowever, for HAR‐based projections, the increase is much less. For hydrological droughts the signal of change is similar for both PET methods, but considerably distinct in magnitude. Considering the entire simulation period, by the end of the century cumulative severity of hydrological droughts is projected to decrease, with a much more pronounced decline for HAR (70% reduction) than for the PM method (35% reduction). Our study demonstrated that methodological choices are crucial to the assessment of future drought risk under climate change.

Aridity index

10.1002/joc.8674

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High‐resolution simulated water balance and streamflow data set for 1951–2020 for the territory of Poland

Geoscience Data Journal (2022)

Paweł Marcinkowski Ignacy Kardel Eliza Płaczkowska Marek Giełczewski Paweł Osuch

Abstract Long‐term simulated water balance and streamflow data for the territory of Poland with high spatio‐temporal resolution were reconstructed for the period 1951–2020 with a daily time step, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The spatial structure includes 4,381 sub‐basins and 47,725 hydrological response units. The SWAT model was extensively calibrated and validated following a two‐stage, multi‐site calibration method for 88 gauging stations across Poland. The simulations show satisfactory performance with a median Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.73 and 0.7 in the calibration and validation period respectively. The model performance exceeded that of its predecessor, the SWAT model of the Vistula and Odra basins. The simulated hydrological data set covers daily water balance components at the sub‐basin level, including precipitation total, snowfall, snowmelt, evapotranspiration (actual and potential), surface runoff, soil water, percolation, groundwater recharge, groundwater flow, tile flow and water yield (all components in mm), and daily streamflow (m 3 /s) at the reach level. The data set is stored in an online, publicly available research data archive 4TU.Research Data (Marcinkowski, P., Kardel, I., Płaczkowska, E., Giełczewski, M., Osuch, P., Okruszko, T., Venegas‐Cordero, N., Ignar, S. & Piniewski, M (2021). PL‐SWAT‐51_20: a high‐resolution simulated water balance and streamflow data set for 1951‐2020 for the territory of Poland, 4TU.ResearchData. dataset, https://doi.org/10.4121/16843183 ).

Water balance

Snowmelt

SWAT model

10.1002/gdj3.152

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Citations (26)

Projected climate change impacts on tropical life zones in Costa Rica

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment (2021)

Christian Birkel Joni Dehaspe Andrés Chavarría-Palma Nelson Venegas‐Cordero René Capell

Efforts to protect tropical ecosystems aim at implementing biological corridors across the national territory of Costa Rica. However, potential near-future climate change challenges the effectiveness of such conservation measures. For this purpose, we developed near-future climate change scenarios at high spatial resolution using open-access global data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). These projections resulted from downscaling (to a 1km 2 national grid) and quantile-mapping bias-correction of the Essential Climate Variables Global Circulation Model (ECV_GCM) ensemble mean from the CDS using a moderate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Projections were evaluated with limited local station data and applied to generate future ecosystem indicators (Holdridge Life Zones, HLZs). We show significantly increasing temperatures of 2.6°C with a spatial variability of ± 0.4°C for Costa Rica until 2040 with local differences (higher temperatures projected for the southern Costa Rican Caribbean). The future mean annual precipitation showed slightly wetter conditions (120 ± 43 mm/year) and most prominently in the Costa Rican Caribbean and south Pacific, but no significant drying in the north of Costa Rica by 2040. The bias-corrected climate data were aggregated to decadal and 30-year average (1971–2040) life zone ecosystem indicators that could potentially show ecosystem shifts. Changes in the life zones are most likely due to warmer temperatures and to a lesser extent caused by projected wetter conditions. Shifts are more likely to occur at higher elevations with a potential loss of the sub-tropical rainforest ecosystem. The projections support diminishing tropical dry forests and slightly increasing tropical rain and wet forests in the biological corridors of the driest and wettest regions, respectively. A countrywide spatial uniformity of dominating tropical moist forests (increase from 24% to 49%) at the expense of other HLZs was projected by 2040.

Representative Concentration Pathways

10.1177/03091333211047046

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Citations (6)

On the role of water balance as a prerequisite for aquatic and wetland ecosystems management: A case study of the Biebrza catchment, Poland

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology (2024)

Nelson Venegas‐Cordero Paweł Marcinkowski Marta Stachowicz Mateusz Grygoruk

Water balance

Balance of nature

10.1016/j.ecohyd.2024.08.001

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Citations (4)

Urbanization vs. climate drivers: investigating changes in fluvial floods in Poland

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2024)

Nelson Venegas‐Cordero Luis Mediero Mikołaj Piniewski

10.1007/s00477-024-02717-z

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Citations (1)

Detection of trends in observed river floods in Poland

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies (2022)

Nelson Venegas‐Cordero Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Shoaib Jamro Mikołaj Piniewski

Study Region Poland (representative sample of 146 flow gauges free of major human modifications, located in 12 major river basins) Study Focus The objective was to present trends in selected river flood indicators (magnitude, frequency and timing) in Poland, using the annual maximum daily flow and peak-overthreshold approaches. Two periods (1956–2019 and 1981–2019) were analyzed. The first period maximized the temporal coverage and featured 58 gauges, while the second period maximized spatial coverage and featured 146 gauges. Trends were computed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (MK) and Sen slope for changes in magnitude and timing, while flood frequency trend was detected by chisquare test on parametric Poisson regression. New Hydrological Insights for the Region We found a general decreasing trend in flood magnitude, with frequently occurring statistical significance, for the majority of river basins (particularly in north-eastern Poland). The strongest of these trends exceeded 15% per decade. A positive trend was detected in the southern part, particularly in the Upper Vistula Basin. No substantial and significant trends were detected in flood frequency, where identified changes mostly did not exceed values of ± 0.2 events per decade. Trend in flood timing showed a strong pattern of earlier flood occurrences in the southern half of the country for both periods, and an opposite behaviour in the north-eastern and northwestern regions.

Trend analysis

10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101098

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Citations (25)