Tobias Stacke

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

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Stefan Hagemann

Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon

Yoshihide Wada

King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

Simon N. Gosling

University of Nottingham

Philipp de Vrese

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Victor Brovkin

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Henryk Dobslaw

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Naota Hanasaki

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Yoshimitsu Masaki

National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

Dieter Gerten

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

Dominik Wisser

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Cooperative Institutions

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Max Planck Society

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Leibniz Association

Universität Hamburg

University of Edinburgh

Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Wageningen University & Research

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR)

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Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2013)

Jacob Schewe Jens Heinke Dieter Gerten Ingjerd Haddeland Nigel W. Arnell

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Scarcity

Water security

10.1073/pnas.1222460110

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Citations (1,678)

Using GRACE and Climate Models to Identify Regions with Long-term Wetting or Drying Trends

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (2019)

Laura Jensen Annette Eicker Henryk Dobslaw Tobias Stacke Vincent Humphrey

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Modelling and evaluating nitrogen transport from land into the ocean

Tobias Stacke Stefan Hagemann Helmuth Thomas

The representation of biogeochemical cycles in land surface and ocean models is advancing focusing not only on the carbon cycle but also on nutrient interactions such as nitrogen. Some land surface models (LSM) already compute leaching of these constituents from the soil, and some ocean models (OM) consider nutrient influx from the land for a number of processes, e.g. biological activity. However, the OMs usually use observed data or prescribed climatologies as input instead of the nutrient loads computed by the LSMs. This setup cannot readily represent the effects of climate or land use change on nutrient availability and therefore limits the applications of OMs or Earth System Models with respect to climate change impacts on coastal ocean biogeochemistry.For this reason, we extended our hydrology models, the HydroPy (land surface hydrology) and the HD Model (river routing), to not only transport water but also nitrogen. Additionally, we account for several nitrogen processes like fixation, plant assimilation and denitrification on the land surface. Using atmospheric deposition and fertilizer application provided by the CMIP6 project as model inputs, we simulate the riverine nitrogen input to the ocean in a similar magnitude compared to observations. Furthermore, we include the effects of different socio-economic pathways with respect to climate change, land use change and fertilizer application in future projections. Based on these simulations &#8211; conducted at global scale with 0.5deg resolution using forcing from the GFDL-ESM4 model provided by the ISIMIP project - we present possible impacts on riverine nitrogen flow until the end of the century.

Biogeochemical Cycle

Biogeochemistry

10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8591

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Large eddy simulations of the interaction between the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and degrading Arctic permafrost

Authorea (Authorea) (2024)

Mark Schlutow Tobias Stacke Tom Doerffel Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz Mathias Göckede

Arctic permafrost thaw holds the potential to drastically alter the Earth's surface in Northern high latitudes. We utilize high-resolution Large Eddy Simulations to investigate the impact of the changing surfaces onto the neutrally stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). A stochastic surface model based on Gaussian Random Fields modeling typical permafrost landscapes is established in terms of two land cover classes: grass land and open water bodies, which exhibit different surface roughness length and surface sensible heat flux. A set of experiments is conducted where two parameters, the lake areal fraction and the surface correlation length, are varied to study the sensitivity of the boundary layer with respect to surface heterogeneity. Our key findings from the simulations are the following: The lake areal fraction has a substantial impact on the aggregated sensible heat flux at the blending height. The larger the lake areal fraction, the smaller the sensible heat flux. This result gives rise to a potential feedback mechanism. When the Arctic dries due to climate heating, the interaction with the ABL may accelerate permafrost thaw. Furthermore, the blending height shows significant dependency on the correlation length of the surface features. A longer surface correlation length causes an increased blending height. This finding is of relevance for land surface models concerned with Arctic permafrost as they usually do not consider a heterogeneity metric comparable to the surface correlation length.

Large-Eddy Simulation

10.22541/essoar.170612558.81370785/v1

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Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulation

Earth System Dynamics (2016)

Tobias Stacke S. Hagemann

Abstract. In order to evaluate whether the initialization of soil moisture has the potential to improve the prediction skill of earth system models (ESMs) on seasonal to decadal timescales, an elaborate experiment was conducted. For this task a coupled land–atmosphere model with prescribed ocean was utilized. The experiment design considered soil moisture initialization in different seasons and years and yielded information about the lifetime (memory) of extreme yet realistic soil moisture perturbations. Our analyses were focused on root zone soil moisture (RootSM) as it comprises the part of the soil that directly interacts with the atmosphere via bare-soil evaporation and transpiration. We found that RootSM memory differs not only spatially but also depends on the time of initialization. A long memory of up to 1 year is evident mostly for dry soil moisture regimes after heavy precipitation periods or prior to snow covered conditions. Short memory below 2 weeks prevails in wet soil moisture regimes and prior to distinct precipitation periods or snowmelt. Furthermore, RootSM perturbations affect other land surface states, e.g. soil temperature and leaf carbon content, and even induce anomalies with specific memory in these variables. Especially for deep-layer soil temperature, these anomalies can last for up to several years. As long as RootSM memory is evident, we found that anomalies occur periodically in other land surface states whenever climate conditions allow for interactions between that state and RootSM. Additionally, anomaly recurrence is visible for RootSM itself. This recurrence is related to the thickness of the soil layer below the root zone and can affect RootSM for several years. From our findings we conclude that soil moisture initialization has the potential to improve the predictive skill of climate models on seasonal scales and beyond. However, a sophisticated, multilayered soil hydrology scheme is necessary to allow for the interactions between RootSM and the deep-soil layer reservoir.

Initialization

Anomaly (physics)

10.5194/esd-7-1-2016

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First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2013)

Rutger Dankers Nigel W. Arnell Douglas B. Clark Pete Falloon B M Fekete

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

10.1073/pnas.1302078110

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Alkalinity responses to climate warming destabilise the Earth’s thermostat

Nature Communications (2023)

Nele Lehmann Tobias Stacke Sebastian Lehmann Hugues Lantuit John Gosse

Abstract Alkalinity generation from rock weathering modulates Earth’s climate at geological time scales. Although lithology is thought to dominantly control alkalinity generation globally, the role of other first-order controls appears elusive. Particularly challenging remains the discrimination of climatic and erosional influences. Based on global observations, here we uncover the role of erosion rate in governing riverine alkalinity, accompanied by areal proportion of carbonate, mean annual temperature, catchment area, and soil regolith thickness. We show that the weathering flux to the ocean will be significantly altered by climate warming as early as 2100, by up to 68% depending on the environmental conditions, constituting a sudden feedback of ocean CO 2 sequestration to climate. Interestingly, warming under a low-emissions scenario will reduce terrestrial alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes (–1.6 t(bicarbonate) a −1 km −2 ) until the end of the century, resulting in a reduction in CO 2 sequestration, but an increase (+0.5 t(bicarbonate) a −1 km −2 ) from mid-latitudes is likely under a high-emissions scenario, yielding an additional CO 2 sink.

Alkalinity

Thermostat

10.1038/s41467-023-37165-w

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Temperature overshoot scenarios in the continental Arctic

Philipp de Vrese Victor Brovkin Tobias Stacke Thomas Kleinen

Overshoot (microwave communication)

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Impacts of climate change on global terrestrial water storage and the implications on future droughts

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2020)

Yadu Pokhrel Farshid Felfelani Yusuke Satoh Julien Boulangé Peter Burek

Water storage

Global Change

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Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results

Journal of Hydrometeorology (2011)

Ingjerd Haddeland Douglas B. Clark Wietse Franssen Fulco Ludwig Frank Voß

Abstract Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project [Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP)], which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper, the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multimodel global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5° spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-yr period (1985–99) using a newly developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm yr −1 (from 60 000 to 85 000 km 3 yr −1 ), and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm yr −1 (from 42 000 to 66 000 km 3 yr −1 ). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between models are a major source of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models but also some other measure of uncertainty (e.g., multiple impact models).

Water balance

Water cycle

10.1175/2011jhm1324.1

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Citations (583)