Giacomo Marangoni

CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

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Detlef P. van Vuuren

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Massimo Tavoni

CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

Johannes Emmerling

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment

Keywan Riahi

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Volker Krey

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Elmar Kriegler

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Oliver Fricko

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nico Bauer

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Katherine Calvin

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Cooperative Institutions

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

ORCID

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Leibniz Association

Utrecht University

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment

CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

Joint Global Change Research Institute

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Modeling Low Energy Demand Futures for Buildings: Current State and Research Needs

Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2023)

Alessio Mastrucci Leila Niamir Benigna Boza‐Kiss Nuno Bento Dominik Wiedenhofer

Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets.

10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-102921

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Citations (23)

Sensitivity to energy technology costs: A multi-model comparison analysis

Energy Policy (2015)

Valentina Bosetti Giacomo Marangoni Emanuele Borgonovo Laura Díaz Anadón Robert Barron

Relevance

Energy Technology

Expert elicitation

Scenario analysis

10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012

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Citations (100)

Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action

Nature Climate Change (2019)

Jonathan Lamontagne Patrick M. Reed Giacomo Marangoni Klaus Keller Gregory G. Garner

Earth system science

10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8

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Citations (67)

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Nature Climate Change (2018)

Joeri Rogelj Alexander Popp Katherine Calvin Gunnar Luderer Johannes Emmerling

Representative Concentration Pathways

Global temperature

Limiting

Mean radiant temperature

Baseline (sea)

Forcing (mathematics)

10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

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Citations (1,086)

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Nature Climate Change (2014)

Massimo Tavoni Elmar Kriegler Keywan Riahi Detlef P. van Vuuren Tino Aboumahboub

Equity

Climate Finance

Carbon market

10.1038/nclimate2475

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Citations (185)

Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

Nature Energy (2016)

Jessica Jewell Vadim Vinichenko David McCollum Nico Bauer Keywan Riahi

Energy Independence

Baseline (sea)

Energy Security

Independence

10.1038/nenergy.2016.73

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Citations (64)

Evaluating the EU ETS impacts on profits, investments and prices of the Italian electricity market

Energy Policy (2013)

Francesca Bonenti Giorgia Oggioni Elisabetta Allevi Giacomo Marangoni

Directive

Energy market

Complementarity (molecular biology)

10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.026

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Citations (36)

Adaptive mitigation strategies hedge against extreme climate futures

Climatic Change (2021)

Giacomo Marangoni Jonathan Lamontagne Julianne D. Quinn Patrick M. Reed Klaus Keller

Abstract The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” (UNFCCC 2015). Designing a global mitigation strategy to support this goal poses formidable challenges. For one, there are trade-offs between the economic costs and the environmental benefits of averting climate impacts. Furthermore, the coupled human-Earth systems are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. Previous economic analyses typically addressed either the former, introducing multiple objectives, or the latter, making mitigation actions responsive to new information. This paper aims at bridging these two separate strands of literature. We demonstrate how information feedback from observed global temperature changes can jointly improve the economic and environmental performance of mitigation strategies. We focus on strategies that maximize discounted expected utility while also minimizing warming above 2 °C, damage costs, and mitigation costs. Expanding on the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model and previous multi-objective efforts, we implement closed-loop control strategies, map the emerging trade-offs and quantify the value of the temperature information feedback under both well-characterized and deep climate uncertainties. Adaptive strategies strongly reduce high regrets, guarding against mitigation overspending for less sensitive climate futures, and excessive warming for more sensitive ones.

10.1007/s10584-021-03132-x

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Citations (11)

Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas

Nature (2014)

Haewon McJeon Jae Edmonds Nico Bauer Leon Clarke Brian S. Fisher

10.1038/nature13837

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Citations (216)

Corrigendum to ‘Sensitivity to energy technology costs: A multi-model comparison analysis’ [Energy Policy, 80 (2015) 244–263]

Energy Policy (2017)

Valentina Bosetti Giacomo Marangoni Emanuele Borgonovo Laura Díaz Anadón Robert Barron

10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.061

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Citations (0)