This paper describes a large cyclonic gyre that lasted several days in the northwest Pacific during July 1988. Cyclonic winds at 850 hPa extended beyond the 2000-km radius with a radius of maximum winds of 700–800 km. The gyre exhibited clear skies within and north of its center. Active convection extended 4000 km in longitude to its south. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was in its active phase in the Indian Ocean prior to gyre formation. Consistent with earlier studies, diabatic heating in the MJO was associated with an anomalous upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the northeast Asian coast and a jet exit region over the northwest Pacific. Repeated equatorward wave-breaking events developed downwind of the jet exit region. One such event left behind a region of lower-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity and convection in the subtropics that played a key role in the gyre formation. A second wave-breaking event produced strong subsidence north of the mature gyre that contributed to its convective asymmetry. Gyres from 1985 and 1989 were compared to the 1988 case. All three gyres developed during an active MJO in the Indian Ocean. Each gyre displayed the same strong convective asymmetry. Each developed in July or August during the climatological peak in breaking Rossby waves in the northwest Pacific. Finally, all of the gyres developed during La Niña at nearly the same location. This location and the convective structure of the gyres closely matched composite La Niña anomalies during boreal summer.
A significant sign reversal in the meridional potential vorticity gradient was found during the summer of 1991 on the 310-K isentropic surface (near 700 mb) over the Caribbean Sea. The Charney–Stern necessary condition for instability of the mean flow is met in this region. It is speculated that the sign reversal permits either invigoration of African waves or actual generation of easterly waves in the Caribbean. During the same season, a correlation existed between the strength of the negative potential vorticity gradient in the Caribbean and subsequent cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific. The meridional PV gradient, convective heating measured by outgoing longwave radiation data, and eastern Pacific cyclogenesis all varied on the timescale of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). It is hypothesized that upstream wave growth in the dynamically unstable region provides the connection between the MJO (or any other convective forcing) and the associated enhanced downstream tropical cyclogenesis.
Abstract A strong MJO event produced an upper-tropospheric jet streak in northeast Asia and repeated wave breaking in the jet exit region along 150°E during July 1988. A midlatitude low moved equatorward and intensified in the presence of bandpass-filtered (15–100 day) Q vector forcing for upward motion associated with the wave breaking. This forced ascent helped to moisten the atmosphere enough to increase the column water vapor to above 55 mm. This value was sufficiently large to support a self-sustaining low even after the upper forcing weakened. The horizontal scale of the Q vector forcing was about 1500 km, consistent with the scale of most favorable convective response to quasigeostrophic forcing in the subtropics described by Nie and Sobel. The low lasted one month as it moved southwestward, then westward, while remaining north of 20°N. Maximum precipitation along the track of the low exceeded 700 mm, with an anomaly more than 400 mm. A climatology of long-lasting lows was carried out for the monsoon gyre cases studied previously. During El Niño, long-lasting lows often began near the equator in the central Pacific, and were likely to have a mixed Rossby–gravity wave or equatorial Rossby wave structure. It is speculated that the quasi-biweekly mode, the submonthly oscillation, the 20–25-day mode, and the Pacific–Japan pattern are each variations on this kind of event. During La Niña, long-lasting lows that originated in midlatitudes were more common. It is argued that these lows from midlatitudes represent a unique disturbance type in boreal summer.
Abstract Hurricane Frances (2004) represented an unusual event that produced three consecutive overlapping eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). Their evolution followed some aspects of the typical ERC. The strong primary eyewalls contracted and outward-sloping secondary eyewalls formed near 3 times the radius of maximum winds. Over time these secondary eyewalls shifted inward, became more upright, and replaced the primary eyewalls. In other aspects, however, the ERCs in Hurricane Frances differed from previously described composites. The outer eyewall wind maxima became stronger than the inner in only 12 h, versus 25 h for average ERCs. More than 15 m s −1 outflow peaked in the upper troposphere during each ERC. Relative vorticity maxima peaked at the surface but extended to mid- and upper levels. Mean 200-hPa zonal velocity was often from the east, whereas ERC environments typically have zonal flow from the west. These easterlies were produced by an intense upper anticyclone slightly displaced from the center and present throughout the period of multiple ERCs. Inertial stability was low at almost all azimuths at 175 hPa near the 500-km radius during the period of interest. It is hypothesized that the reduced resistance to outflow associated with low inertial stability aloft induced deep upward motion and rapid intensification of the secondary eyewalls. The annular hurricane index of Knaff et al. showed that Hurricane Frances met all the criteria for annular hurricanes, which make up only 4% of all storms. It is argued that the annular hurricane directly resulted from the repeated ERCs following Wang’s reasoning.
Abstract Convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the vertical distribution of buoyancy were calculated for more than 2000 dropsonde soundings collected by the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft. Calculations were done with and without the effects of condensate loading, entrainment, and the latent heat of fusion. CAPE showed larger values downshear than upshear within 400 km of the center, consistent with the observed variation of convective intensity. The larger downshear CAPE arose from (i) higher surface specific humidity, (ii) lower midtropospheric temperature, and, for entraining CAPE, (iii) larger free-tropospheric relative humidity. Reversible CAPE had only one-half the magnitude of pseudoadiabatic CAPE. As shown previously, reversible CAPE with fusion closely resembled pseudoadiabatic CAPE without fusion. Entrainment had the most dramatic impact. Entraining CAPE was consistent with the observed radial distribution of convective intensity, displaying the largest values downshear at inner radii. Without entrainment, downshear CAPE was smallest in the core and increased outward to the 600-km radius. The large number of sondes allowed the examination of soundings at the 90th percentile of conditional instability, which reflect the conditions leading to the most vigorous updrafts. Observations of convection in tropical cyclones prescribe the correct method for calculating this conditional instability. In particular, the abundance and distribution of vigorous deep convection is most accurately reflected by calculating CAPE with condensate retention and a fractional entrainment rate in the range of 5%–10% km−1.
Abstract The previous study of helicity, CAPE, and shear in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) was extended to all eight tropical cyclones sampled by NASA during the Convection and Moisture Experiments (CAMEX). Storms were categorized as having large or small ambient vertical wind shear, with 10 m s−1 as the dividing line. In strongly sheared storms, the downshear mean helicity exceeded the upshear mean by a factor of 4. As in the previous study, the helicity differences resulted directly from the tropical cyclone response to ambient shear, with enhanced in-up-out flow and veering of the wind with height present downshear. CAPE in strongly sheared storms was 60% larger downshear. Mean inflow near the surface and the depth of the inflow layer each were 4 times larger downshear. At more than 30% of observation points outside the 100-km radius in the downshear right quadrant, midlatitude empirical parameters indicated a strong likelihood of supercells. No such points existed upshear in highly sheared storms. Much smaller upshear–downshear differences and little likelihood of severe cells occurred in storms with ambient wind shear below 10 m s−1. In addition to these azimuthal asymmetries, highly sheared storms produced 30% larger area-averaged CAPE and double the area-averaged helicity versus relatively unsheared storms. The vortex-scale increase in these quantities lessens the negative impact of large vertical wind shear.
The structure and evolution of lowpass-filtered background flow and synoptic-scale easterly waves were examined during the 1991 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Active and inactive cyclogenesis periods conformed well to the sign of the near-equatorial, lowpass-filtered, 850-mb zonal wind anomaly, consistent with the recent results of Maloney and Hartmann. This behavior emphasizes the importance of westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in creating an environment favorable for eastern Pacific tropical cyclogenesis. Synoptic-scale easterly waves reached the western Caribbean and eastern Pacific regularly from upstream, usually from Africa. The amplitude of waves leaving Africa had little correlation with the likelihood of a wave producing an eastern Pacific storm. Rather, easterly waves intensified, and tropical depressions formed, during the convectively active phase of the MJO in the western Caribbean and eastern Pacific. Wave growth, measured by strengthening of convection within the waves, occurred in the regions of sign reversal of the meridional potential vorticity gradient found previously. For the 1991 season cyclogenesis occurs when westward-moving synoptic-scale waves amplify within the superclusters that represent the favorable MJO envelope. Analogously, waves existed but failed to grow during the unfavorable part of the MJO. During each active period of the MJO, the region of active convection moved eastward and northward with time in the eastern Pacific, with strongest convection reaching as far as the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of such periods. The locations of tropical depression formation followed a similar path, shifting eastward with time following the MJO, and northward following the eastern Pacific intertropical convergence zone. The latter was defined by the locations of low-pass-filtered background vorticity maxima at 1000 mb. It is argued based on previous work in the literature that the western Pacific might behave similarly, with upstream easterly waves growing and producing depressions within the convectively active envelope of the MJO.
Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century.
The genesis of Hurricane Hernan (1996) in the eastern Pacific was investigated using gridded analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and gridded outgoing longwave radiation. Hernan developed in association with a wave in the easterlies that could be tracked back to Africa in longitude–time plots of the filtered υ component of the wind (2–6-day period) at 700 mb. The wave crossed Central America near Lake Nicaragua with little change in its southwest–northeast tilt, but the most intense convection shifted from near the wave axis in the Caribbean to west of the wave axis in the Pacific. The wave intensified as it moved through a barotropically unstable background state (defined by a low-pass filter with a 20-day cutoff) in the western Caribbean and eastern Pacific. A surge in the southwesterly monsoons and enhanced convection along 10°N occurred to the west of the 700-mb wave in the Pacific and traveled with the wave. This had the effect of enhancing low-level vorticity over a wide region ahead of the 700-mb wave. Available evidence suggests that additional low-level vorticity was produced by enhanced flow from the north through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec as the 700-mb wave approached. Depression formation did not occur until 6–12 h after the 700-mb wave reached this region of large low-level vorticity in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Eastern Pacific SST and vertical wind shear magnitude are typically favorable for tropical cyclone development in Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall. Because the favorable mountain interaction and the surge in the low-level monsoons appear to relate directly to the wave in the easterlies, it is argued that the strength of such waves reaching Central America from the east is the single most important factor in whether subsequent eastern Pacific cyclogenesis occurs. Possible parallels with western Pacific cyclogenesis are discussed.
The Eliassen balanced vortex model assumes gradient balance of the azimuthal mean flow. This assumption was tested by calculating mean and eddy terms in the radial momentum equation in the synoptic-scale environments of two tropical cyclones. The azimuthally averaged gradient balance was accurate to within 15%–25% in the free atmosphere outside the core, even in the asymmetric outflow layer. Balanced secondary circulations correlated well with circulations that included gradient thermal wind imbalance terms. Although the balanced model lacks Galilean invariance, balanced circulations were largely insensitive to use of a fixed coordinate or a coordinate moving with the storm. This occurred because changes in eddy heat and angular momentum fluxes largely offset one another. The two-dimensional balanced solutions provide a reasonably robust measure of circulations induced by azimuthal eddy processes in the tropical cyclone environment. Nevertheless, individual forcing functions, such as the commonly examined lateral eddy flux convergence of angular momentum, often varied enormously between fixed and moving coordinates. Logic and available evidence suggest that such terms are meaningful only in a coordinate system moving with the storm.
