Annalisa Cappello

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

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Co-Authors

Gaetana Ganci

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Ciro Del Negro

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Giuseppe Bilotta

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Alexis Hérault

Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers

Marco Neri

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Claudia Corradino

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Sonia Calvari

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Vito Zago

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Francesco Zuccarello

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Cristina Proietti

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Cooperative Institutions

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

INGV Osservatorio Etneo

University of Catania

Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Catania

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania

Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans

National Research Council

Université Clermont Auvergne

Radiotelevisione Italiana (Italy)

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An emergent strategy for volcano hazard assessment: From thermal satellite monitoring to lava flow modeling

Remote Sensing of Environment (2012)

Gaetana Ganci Annamaria Vicari Annalisa Cappello Ciro Del Negro

Volcanic hazards

10.1016/j.rse.2011.12.021

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Citations (110)

Spatial data and GIS for the assessment of the environmental impact at Mount Etna

Annals of Geophysics (2025)

Michele Mangiameli Annalisa Cappello Giuseppe Mussumeci

One of the fundamental tasks for environmental impact assessment and natural risk management is the accurate and updated cataloging of road infrastructures and buildings. This is particularly important in volcanic areas, in order to predict the range of damage and disruption, and therefore losses and reconstruction costs that could result from an eruption. GIS allows immediate access to spatial data with the ability to overlay location-based information for easy interpretation, providing a critical tool for assessing and mitigating risk from natural phenomena. In this work, we present an innovative GIS‑based system for the identification of the values exposed to volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna, which can be used in both the readiness and response phases to a volcanic emergency. We carried out a precision mapping of buildings and road infrastructures on the flanks of the Etna volcano, giving particular attention to the exposed sensitive buildings (such as schools, barracks, hospitals, etc.) and to the construction and roofing characteristics. The result is an informative and dynamic platform that offers new opportunities and challenges to decision makers for the definition of both long‑term strategies, such as territorial planning, and short‑term strategies, for the prediction of the impact of eruptions or for managing evacuations during volcanic emergencies.

Mount

10.4401/ag-9171

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Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth (2013)

Annalisa Cappello Giuseppe Bilotta Marco Neri Ciro Del Negro

Abstract The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and (2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a nonhomogenous Poisson process with space‐time varying intensities. After demonstrating the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and 50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.

Flank

Summit

Volcanic hazards

Lateral eruption

10.1002/jgrb.50190

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Citations (57)

A new algorithm for complex lava flow modeling driven by satellite-derived data

Francesco Zuccarello Giuseppe Bilotta Flavio Cannavò Annalisa Cappello Roberto Guardo

Lava flows represent the main hazardous phenomena that may threaten human buildings in basaltic volcanoes. Physical and chemical characteristics of lava, as well as the rate at which lava is emitted at the vents, strongly control the motion and the extensions of lava flows. Estimation of the likely paths that lava flows may follow during an ongoing eruption can be evaluated through numerical modeling driven by satellite-derived time averaged discharge rate (TADR). However, complex eruptive dynamics, such as the sequential opening of new vents, formation of lava tubes and fluctuations in effusion rates, may lead to the development of composite lava fields, which are challenging to reproduce with a simple 2D modeling. In this study, we present a new optimization algorithm based on the Metropolis-Hastings approach to model complex emplacements of lava flow fields using satellite imagery. In particular, the algorithm performs sequential time-step refinements by assimilating TADR estimations, derived from low spatial resolution satellite imagery (e.g. MODIS, SLSTR, SEVIRI), and the locations of both main and ephemeral vents, obtained from higher spatial resolution imagery (e.g. MSI Sentinel 2, OLI & TIRS Landsat 8/9 or Planetscope). The algorithm automatically chooses the optimal input parameters and the associated uncertainty, minimizing the mismatch between the simulated and the observed lava flow features extracted from multi-source satellite imagery. The testing and validation have been performed using two recent effusive events that occurred at Mt. Etna (Italy): the 27 February - 1 March 2017 and the 27 November 2022 - 6 February 2023 eruptions.

10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8471

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SPYGLASSDS-GUIDED LITHOTRIPSY FOR PANCREATIC DUCT STONES IN SYMPTOMATIC, TREATMENT REFRACTORY CHRONIC PANCREATITIS - LONG-TERM (3-5 YEARS) FOLLOW-UP ON CLINICAL SUCCESS AND QUALITY OF LIFE

Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (2022)

T. Dertmann Annalisa Cappello Lukas Schmitz Erwin-Jan M. van Geenen Peter D. Siersema

10.1016/j.gie.2022.04.903

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A year of lava fountaining at Etna: Volumes from SEVIRI

Geophysical Research Letters (2012)

Gaetana Ganci Andrew Harris Ciro Del Negro Yannick Guéhenneux Annalisa Cappello

We present a new method that uses cooling curves, apparent in high temporal resolution thermal data acquired by geostationary sensors, to estimate erupted volumes and mean output rates during short lava fountaining events. The 15 minute temporal resolution of the data allows phases of waxing and peak activity to be identified during short (150‐to‐810 minute‐long) events. Cooling curves, which decay over 8‐to‐21 hour‐periods following the fountaining event, can also be identified. Application to 19 fountaining events recorded at Etna by MSG's SEVIRI sensor between 10 January 2011 and 9 January 2012, yields a total erupted dense rock lava volume of ∼28 × 10 6 m 3 , with a maximum intensity of 227 m 3 s −1 being obtained for the 12 August 2011 event. The time‐averaged output over the year was 0.9 m 3 s −1 , this being the same as the rate that has characterized Etna's effusive activity for the last 40 years.

Temporal resolution

10.1029/2012gl051026

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Citations (93)

How the variety of satellite remote sensing data over volcanoes can assist hazard monitoring efforts: The 2011 eruption of Nabro volcano

Remote Sensing of Environment (2019)

Gaetana Ganci Annalisa Cappello Giuseppe Bilotta Ciro Del Negro

Volcanic hazards

10.1016/j.rse.2019.111426

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Citations (49)

Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2014-2015 Fogo eruption, Cape Verde

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth (2016)

Annalisa Cappello Gaetana Ganci Sonia Calvari Nemesio M. Pérez Pedro A. Hernández

Abstract Satellite remote sensing techniques and lava flow forecasting models have been combined to enable a rapid response during effusive crises at poorly monitored volcanoes. Here we used the HOTSAT satellite thermal monitoring system and the MAGFLOW lava flow emplacement model to forecast lava flow hazards during the 2014–2015 Fogo eruption. In many ways this was one of the major effusive eruption crises of recent years, since the lava flows actually invaded populated areas. Combining satellite data and modeling allowed mapping of the probable evolution of lava flow fields while the eruption was ongoing and rapidly gaining as much relevant information as possible. HOTSAT was used to promptly analyze MODIS and SEVIRI data to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux, and effusion rate estimation. This output was used to drive the MAGFLOW simulations of lava flow paths and to continuously update flow simulations. We also show how Landsat 8 OLI and EO‐1 ALI images complement the field observations for tracking the flow front position through time and adding considerable data on lava flow advancement to validate the results of numerical simulations. The integration of satellite data and modeling offers great promise in providing a unified and efficient system for global assessment and real‐time response to effusive eruptions, including (i) the current state of the effusive activity, (ii) the probable evolution of the lava flow field, and (iii) the potential impact of lava flows.

Effusive eruption

Cape verde

10.1002/2015jb012666

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Citations (62)

Spatial probability distribution of future volcanic eruptions at El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (2013)

Laura Becerril Annalisa Cappello Inés Galindo Marco Neri Ciro Del Negro

Volcanic hazards

10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.005

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Citations (70)