Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to and is under consideration at Geophysical Research Letters. ESSOAr is a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn more about preprints preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v1]Role of poroelasticity during the early postseismic deformation of the 2010 Maule megathrust earthquakeAuthorsCarlosPeñaiDSabrinaMetzgeriDOliverHeidbachJonathan RBedfordBodoBookhagenMarcosMorenoOnckenOnnoiDFabriceCottonSee all authors Carlos PeñaiDCorresponding Author• Submitting AuthorHelmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Centre for GeosciencesiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9432-226Xview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressSabrina MetzgeriDHelmholtz-Zentrum, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum PotsdamiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0803-6599view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressOliver HeidbachHelmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Centre for Geosciencesview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressJonathan R BedfordDeutsches GeoForschungsZentrumview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressBodo BookhagenUniversity of Potsdamview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressMarcos MorenoUniversidad de Concepciónview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressOncken OnnoiDGeoForschungsZentrum PotsdamiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2894-480Xview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressFabrice CottonGFZview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email address
Abstract Large subduction earthquakes induce complex postseismic deformation, primarily driven by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, in addition to interplate relocking processes. However, these signals are intricately intertwined, posing challenges in determining the timing and nature of relocking. Here, we use six years of continuous GNSS measurements (2015–2021) to study the spatiotemporal evolution of afterslip, seismicity and locking after the 2015 Illapel earthquake ( $$M_w$$ Mw 8.3). Afterslip is inverted from postseismic displacements corrected for nonlinear viscoelastic relaxation modeled using a power-law rheology, and the distribution of locking is obtained from the linear trend of GNSS stations. Our results show that afterslip is mainly concentrated in two zones surrounding the region of largest coseismic slip. The accumulated afterslip (corresponding to $$M_w$$ Mw 7.8) exceeds 1.5 m, with aftershocks mainly occurring at the boundaries of the afterslip patches. Our results reveal that the region experiencing the largest coseismic slip undergoes rapid relocking, exhibiting the behavior of a persistent velocity weakening asperity, with no observed aftershocks or afterslip within this region during the observed period. The rapid relocking of this asperity may explain the almost regular recurrence time of earthquakes in this region, as similar events occurred in 1880 and 1943.
GNSS derived velocity vectors for stations located throughout Central Asia. All vectors are calculated and presented in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2008 (ITRF08).
GNSS derived velocity vectors for stations located throughout Central Asia. All vectors are calculated and presented in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2008 (ITRF08).
The lateral movement of Earth’s crust through tectonic advection plays an important role in shaping topography in many active orogens worldwide. Numerical modelling and select field studies have shown that tectonic advection can alter topography and thereby create asymmetric drainage divides. Divide migration typically occurs opposite to the direction of tectonic advection, however, in many mountain belts, the wedge-tip propagation towards the foreland outpaces the rate of convergence, in which case the direction of topographic asymmetry should be reversed. We combine geomorphic and geodetic analyses with numerical models to test whether topographic asymmetry in the Longmenshan region of Southeast Tibet is dominated by advection of the crust from the ongoing India-Eurasia collision, movement of river base-level with the propagation of the thrust front into the Sichuan Basin, or other tectonic and climatic factors. We measure the magnitude and direction of drainage divide asymmetry using geomorphic metrics and compare these to horizontal GNSS velocities, which measure tectonic advection and shortening relative to the stable Sichuan Basin block. Geologic studies estimate that wedge-tip propagation toward the Sichuan Basin has been negligible since ~5-10 Ma.Our results show that drainage divide asymmetries in the Longmenshan and Bayankala tectonic blocks indicate a dominantly northwest divide migration direction relative to the underlying rock. This is opposite to the dominantly southeast-pointing GNSS rates and suggests that within-wedge shortening and southward surface advection are more important than wedge-tip propagation. These findings also indicate that topography in the Longmenshan and Bayankala blocks has already adjusted to the current kinematics. Inconsistencies in the signal can be explained by localized deformation and uplift from faulting and other small-scale transient adjustments in the river network, such as those caused by stream captures. We compare these results to a series of numerical model scenarios with varying advection and wedge-tip propagation velocities to discern the relative influence of tectonic advection and thrust-front dynamics on the region’s topography. Our study highlights the critical role tectonic advection plays in shaping topography on the Southeast Tibetan Plateau and it provides a comparative framework for distinguishing the relative rates of advection and wedge-tip propagation.
<p>Geodetic, seismological, gravimetric, and geomorphic proxies have widely been used to understand the behavior of the shallow portion of subduction megathrusts and answer questions related to seismic asperities: Where are they located, and how large are they? How close are they to failure, and how strong are they coupled? Our current knowledge of the kinematics and dynamics of megathrust earthquakes is limited due to their offshore location, and that our observations only cover a fraction of one megathrust earthquake cycle.&#160;</p><p>The frictional-elastoplastic interaction between the interface and its overriding wedge causes variable surface strain signals such that the wedge strain pattern may reveal the mechanical state of the interface. We here contribute to this discussion using observations and interpretations of controlled analog megathrust experiments highlighting the variability of deformation signals in subduction zones. To examine the interaction, we investigate seismotectonic scale models representing a seismically heterogenous interface and capture the model&#8217;s surface displacements by employing a &#8220;laboratory-geodetic&#8221; method with high spatio-temporal resolution. Our experiments generate physically self&#8208;consistent, analog megathrust earthquake ruptures over multiple seismic cycles at laboratory scale to study the interplay between short-term elastic and long-term permanent deformation.&#160;</p><p>Our results demonstrate that frictional-elastoplastic interaction partitions the upper plate into a trench-parallel and -perpendicular strain domain, experiencing opposite strain (contraction vs. extension) during the co- and interseismic phase of the seismic cycle. Moreover, the pattern differs in the off- and onshore segments of the upper plate. This implies that the seismic potential of the shallow (offshore) portion of the megathrust may be underrepresented if only onshore observations are included in the estimate. However, our models suggest that, in the case of strong frictional contrast (velocity weakening vs. strengthening) on the interface, the short-term, onshore strain pattern (dominated by elastic deformation) may suffice to map the frictional heterogeneity of the shallow interface along strike. Finally, the frictional heterogeneity of the shallow interface is well reflected by the permanent surface strain observed offshore and partially in the strain observed at the coastal region. The observed along-trench segmentation predicted by our models is reasonably compatible with short-term, elastic geodetic observations and permanent geomorphic features in nature.</p>
Large subduction earthquakes induce complex postseismic deformation, primarily driven by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, in addition to interplate relocking processes. However, these signals are intricately intertwined, posing challenges in determining the timing and nature of relocking. Here, we use six years of continuous GNSS measurements (2015-2021) to study the spatio-temporal evolution of afterslip, seismicity and locking after the 2015 Illapel earthquake (Mw 8.3). Afterslip is invertedfrom postseismic displacements corrected for nonlinear viscoelastic relaxation modeled using a power-law rheology, and the distribution of locking is obtained from the linear trend of GNSS stations. Our results show that afterslip is mainly concentrated in two zones surrounding the region of largest coseismic slip. The accumulated afterslip (M w 7.8) exceeds 1.5 m, with aftershocks mainly occurring at the boundaries of the afterslip patches. Our results reveal that the region experiencing the largest coseismic slip undergoes rapid relocking, exhibiting the behavior of a persistent velocity weakening asperity, with no observed aftershocks or afterslip within this region during the observed period. The rapid relocking of this asperity may explain the almost regular recurrence time of earthquakes in this region, as similar events occurred in 1880 and 1943.
Abstract At the northwestern tip of the India‐Asia collision zone, the Pamir orocline overrides the Tajik Depression and the Tarim Basin and collides with the Tian Shan. Currently, the Pamir's northern edge exhibits localized shortening rates of 13–19 mm/yr. While the eastern Pamir and the Tarim Basin move northward nearly en block, north‐south shortening decreases westward along the Pamir front into the Tajik Depression. In the northeastern Tajik Depression, the wedge‐shaped crustal sliver of the Peter the First Range is squeezed between the dextral‐transpressive Vakhsh and the sinistral‐transpressive Darvaz faults. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data collected along two densely surveyed profiles detail the kinematics of north‐south shortening and westward lateral extrusion in the northwestern Pamir. The 2016 campaign data suggest a short‐duration dextral‐slip activation of the Darvaz fault, which we interpret as a far‐field effect triggered by the 2015, M w 7.2 Sarez, Central Pamir earthquake. 2013–2015 interseismic GNSS velocities and kinematic modeling show that the Darvaz fault zone accommodates ~15 mm/yr sinistral shear and ~10 mm/yr fault‐normal extension below a locking depth of 9.0 + 0.4/−1.1 km. The Vakhsh fault shows shortening rates of 15 + 4/−2 mm/yr and dextral shear rates of 16 ±3 mm/yr. Jointly, these faults accommodate NW‐SE shortening and southwestward material flow out of the Peter the First Range into the Tajik Depression. Together with seismic and geologic data, our and published geodetic surveys showcase the prolonged interaction of shortening and lateral material flow out of a plateau margin.