Climate change affects tree species, altering their growth and distribution, with effects varying by region, although mostly negative in the Mediterranean. This study examines 27 tree species in central Iberia, in a continental Mediterranean climate, using GISs and climate models. It investigates changes in net primary productivity (NPP) under different climate scenarios, identifying species that are endangered or vulnerable. Currently, only 2.4% of forest stands are endangered, but 51.2% are vulnerable; by 2100, these figures could rise to 35.4% and 85.2%, respectively. A correlation between altitude and threat level was found, with mountain species facing lower risks. Species with higher threat levels are linked to high NPP or low NPP variability. Four species currently have no threatened stands, though they may in the future, except one introduced in high-elevation areas, which will be favoured by climate change. Climate change will induce migrations to higher altitudes, but these movements depend on the rate of change, population size, fragmentation, and human alteration of the environment. Migration will be more challenging for low-altitude species in heavily human-impacted areas.
Abstract Rivers are dynamic systems, with mobility due to their changing flows. Variations in flow give rise to floods, forming floodplains, whose human occupation depends on the probability of flooding; the reduction of floods favours human occupation. This study analyses the modification of the fluvial territory of the lower stretch of the Jarama River between 1956 and 2020, through orthophotographic analysis. The regulation of the basin by dams has led to the disappearance of floods, favouring human occupation of the fluvial territory. Concurrently, the length of the river channel has increased by 2.3% due to the excavation of some meanders, favoured by the modification of flows due to the discharge of wastewater treatment plants. As a consequence, the fluvial territory has increased by 0.88 km 2 due to erosion, but at the same time has lost 14.36 km 2 due to human occupation, with a net loss of 58.3% of the area. Most of the occupied fluvial territory has been used for agriculture, followed by grassland and mining, although much of the grasslands are former mining areas. The current public river domain is very narrow, and is defined as a fixed space, incompatible with fluvial dynamics. Floodplains are a strategic resource, as a defence against floods and to preserve river dynamics, sediment transport and biodiversity. It is necessary to preserve the fluvial territory and expand it by recovering lost land, and to maintain a space of freedom for the river, allowing its natural dynamics.
Abstract Heavy rainfall causes many watercourses to overflow. In these circumstances, crossing by car even on a road, can be extremely dangerous; however, dozens of drivers are swept away every year in their vehicles. This paper analyses this type of accident in Spain between 2008 and 2018, recording the date, location, number of victims, age and gender, and rainfall during the event. The results show that 125 accidents occurred with 200 victims including 45 fatalities. Most accidents occurred in E, S and SE Spain, where the rainfall irregularity is greater, during December, October and March, although fatalities were concentrated in September and October. Among the victims male drivers dominated, with an average age of 52 years. The main cause of these accidents was the drivers' behaviour due to: underestimating risk, overconfidence, overvaluation of their driving skills, an excess of trust in the authorities, ignorance about vehicle drag and buoyancy risks, and, social pressure. To reduce these risks, it is necessary to increase adaptation and protection measures on roads, but above all, a change in drivers' behaviour to stop them trying to cross‐flooded rivers.
Climate change influences carbon sequestration by forests, either positively or negatively. In the Mediterranean region, this effect is predominantly negative, although it seems to be compensated by the elevation. This study aims to analyse the impact of climate change on carbon sequestration in five pine species—Pinus halepensis, P. nigra, P. pinaster, P. pinea, and P. sylvestris—growing across an altitudinal gradient from 573 to 1743 m a.s.l. in central Spain. Data from 300 forest inventory plots in ten forests were used to first calculate carbon sequestration in 2024. To estimate future carbon sequestration, the expected values of precipitation and temperature for 2100 were determined, based on regionalised climate scenarios for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Values from 13 meteorological stations located around the forests, at different elevations, were analysed, conducting a statistical analysis to determine whether variations were significant. A statistically significant variation was detected for temperature and precipitation changes only under the RCP8.5 scenario. Using temperature and precipitation data for 2024 and 2100, net potential productivity in both years was established, considering its variation ratio equivalent as equivalent to that of growth and carbon sequestration. An inflection point was detected in 2100 at 1646 m a.s.l., with a decrease in productivity below and an increase above that elevation. Results reflect a decline in carbon sequestration in all the species, ranging from 6% in P. sylvestris to 28% in P. halepensis, conditioned by the elevation. Regionally, the average decrease would be 16.4%. In temperate and boreal regions, forest growth is expected to increase due to climate change, but the Mediterranean region will experience a significant decrease, except in mountain areas. To maintain current levels of carbon sequestration, it would be necessary to increase the existing carbon sinks through new plantations and the restoration of degraded forests.