Richard A. Muller

University of California, Berkeley

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Gordon J. F. MacDonald

Glasgow Royal Infirmary

Jonathan Levine

Levine Cancer Institute

Robert Rohde

Earth Island Institute

Daniel B. Karner

Sonoma State University

S. Perlmutter

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Piet Hut

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Donald E. Morris

Creative Commons

Paul R. Renne

Berkeley Geochronology Center

Marc Davis

University of California, Berkeley

E. J. Stephenson

Indiana University Bloomington

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University of California, Berkeley

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Cambridge University Press

University of California System

Faculty of 1000 (United States)

Stanford University

California Institute of Technology

Bridge University

Planetary Science Institute

U.S. National Science Foundation

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Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2013)

Richard A. Muller Judith A. Curry D. Groom Robert Jacobsen S. Perlmutter

Abstract Interannual to decadal variations in Earth global temperature estimates have often been identified with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. However, we show that variability on time scales of 2–15 years in mean annual global land surface temperature anomalies T avg are more closely correlated with variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In particular, the cross‐correlation of annually averaged values of T avg with annual values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is much stronger than that of T avg with ENSO. The pattern of fluctuations in T avg from 1950 to 2010 reflects true climate variability and is not an artifact of station sampling. A world map of temperature correlations shows that the association with AMO is broadly distributed and unidirectional. The effect of El Niño on temperature is locally stronger, but can be of either sign, leading to less impact on the global average. We identify one strong narrow spectral peak in the AMO at period 9.1 ± 0.4 years and p value of 1.7% (confidence level, 98.3%). Variations in the flow of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation may be responsible for some of the 2–15 year variability observed in global land temperatures.

Global temperature

Surface air temperature

10.1002/jgrd.50458

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Citations (80)

How black is the Universe?

Nature (1982)

Richard A. Muller

10.1038/295095a0

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Citations (1)

Cycles in fossil diversity