Suci Dewi Anugrah

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

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Dwikorita Karnawati

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

Suko Prayitno Adi

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

Bambang S. Prayitno

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

Nicholas Rawlinson

University of Cambridge

Sri Widiyantoro

Bandung Institute of Technology

Pepen Supendi

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

Tatok Yatimantoro

Hokkaido University

Andri Kurniawan

Bandung Institute of Technology

Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi

Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

Cooperative Institutions

Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency

Bandung Institute of Technology

Australian National University

Universitas Gadjah Mada

National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia

National Research and Innovation Agency

Information and Communication Technology Agency

Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi

John Wiley & Sons (United States)

Charles River Laboratories (Netherlands)

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Numerical Tsunami Inundation Modeling in Ambon City, Indonesia for Potential Earthquake and Landslide at Ambon bay

Tatok Yatimantoro Muhammad Harvan Suci Dewi Anugrah Daryono Daryono Bambang S. Prayitno

A tsunami numerical inundation modeling in the Ambon city was developed by considering large earthquakes along the Ambon bay strike-slip fault and triggering submarine landslide as the tsunami source.&#160; The simulation was conducted using Comcot (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) with a nested grid system in the spherical coordinate system. The four different spatial grid sizes of 60 (layer 1), 15 (layer 2), 3.75 (layer 3), and 0.9375 (layer 4) arc-sec were used in the computation. The linear shallow-water theory with bottom friction was applied for layers 1 -3, meanwhile, layer 4 used the non-linear shallow-water theory with manning roughness coefficient and detail bathymetry data.&#160; The single segmentation of earthquake scenarios with magnitudes Mw 7.2 was assumed. The earthquake then triggers submarine landslides in some areas around Ambon city. The landslide area was approached by Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value and historical data. The results showed that in Ambon city the first tsunami wave arrived 18 min after the earthquake with a maximum flow depth of 7.4 m and inundation distance around 1.2 km. These results show that Ambon city has a risk of tsunami threat from earthquakes and submarine landslides. Therefore, it is necessary the tsunami hazard preparedness by the government and communities.

10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11303

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A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Natural hazards and earth system sciences (2014)

Nick Horspool Ignatius Ryan Pranantyo Jonathan Griffin Hamzah Latief D. H. Natawidjaja

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

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Hazard map

10.5194/nhess-14-3105-2014

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Citations (202)

A previously unidentified fault revealed by the February 25, 2022 (Mw 6.1) Pasaman Earthquake, West Sumatra, Indonesia

Physics of The Earth and Planetary Interiors (2022)

Pepen Supendi Nicholas Rawlinson Bambang S. Prayitno Dimas Sianipar Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak

A destructive earthquake (Mw 6.1) struck Pasaman, West Sumatra, Indonesia, on 25 February 2022, resulting in at least 18 deaths and damage to 1765 buildings. Our relocated foreshock, mainshock, and aftershocks and their source mechanisms reveal a previously unknown ∼20 km long segment of the Sumatran Fault as a result of dextral strike-slip motion (strike N132oE and dip 72oSW) along what we have called the Kajai Fault. The inverted rupture model indicates a single, compact asperity with an approximate depth range of 2–11 km. This asperity extends ∼14 km along strike, and ∼9 km in the down-dip direction. The Coulomb stress change of the mainshock shows that areas to the north and south experienced an increase in stress, which is consistent with the observed aftershock pattern. The nearby Great Sumatran Fault segments (Angkola and Sumpur) experienced a significant increase in stress without any accompanying aftershocks, which likely increases the risk of them rupturing in the future.

Asperity (geotechnical engineering)

10.1016/j.pepi.2022.106973

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Sow the seeds of tsunami ready community in Indonesia: Lesson learned from Tanjung Benoa, Bali

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (2023)

Andi Eka Sakya M.C.G. Frederik Esti Anantasari E. Gunawan Suci Dewi Anugrah

Preparedness

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103567

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Citations (7)

Sow the Seeds of Tsunami Ready Community in Indonesia: Lesson Learned from Tanjung Benoa, Bali

SSRN Electronic Journal (2022)

Andi E. SAKYA M.C.G. Frederik Esti Anantasari E. Gunawan Suci Dewi Anugrah

One of the 5,732 tsunami-prone villages in Indonesia, namely Tanjung Benoa, has been recognized as UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready (UITR) after the completion of the 7th GPDRR-2022 in Bali. The UITR Program is a voluntary community-based international certification program developed by UNESCO-IOC to build resilient communities from the tsunami threat in various regions. Through UNDOS 2021 â€“ 2030, UNESCO has launched a program to ensure that 100% of coastal communities in tsunami-prone areas meet the criteria for 12 UITR indicators by 2030. The process of achieving the recognition of Tanjung Benoa as a Tsunami Ready (TR) Village involves multi-stakeholders. This study assesses factors that have contributed to boosting the awareness and efforts of Tanjung Benoa's local government and its stakeholders to adopt UITR in a sufficiently short time through participative observation. In this paper, we review how multi-stakeholders engage in the process of bridging the community to fulfill the 12 indicators. We find that the fulfillment of these 12 indicators and their recognition not only serves as a benchmark for other tsunami-prone villages, but also builds upon the continuous process of disaster risk reduction capacity development that contributes to leveraging the risk perception and awareness and leads to momentum engaging the UITR. This does not mean that the community and/or all physical infrastructures will be saved against the brunt of the tsunami. Continuous efforts are needed to improve the quality of resilience to the tsunami threat, at least in Tanjung Benoa.

10.2139/ssrn.4245621

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A preliminary study of paleotsunami deposit along the south coast of East Java: Pacitan-Banyuwangi

AIP conference proceedings (2015)

Suci Dewi Anugrah Yahdi Zaim Yan Rizal Aswan Aswan Istiyanati

Along the southern coast of East Java Indonesia, at a number of localities, it can be identified and attempted to assign the age of tsunami deposit. Laboratory analyses were conducted also to support this study such as Granulometry, Paleontology and radiometric dating analysis. The presence of tsunami 1994 deposit in the area of Pancer, Lampon, Prigi and Grajagan was found, as a result of 7.8 Magnitude Banyuwangi Earthquake. The radiometric dating analysis also identified some paleotsunami deposit of about 1921 and 1930 in the area of Prigi and Teleng. This paleotsunami is assumed to have a correlation with an earthquake in the south of Java at the same time. An outcrop in the Prigi and Teleng strongly convinced the fact of an earthquake generated tsunami in the south of Java in the year of about 1921 and 1930.

Outcrop

Radiometric dating

Granulometry

10.1063/1.4915251

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Citations (1)

Tsunami Evidence in South Coast Java, Case Study: Tsunami Deposit along South Coast of Cilacap

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science (2017)

Yan Rizal Aswan Aswan Yahdi Zaim Wahyu Dwijo Santoso Nur Rochim

Cilacap Area is situated in coastal area of Southern Java and directly affected by tsunami hazard in 2006. This event was triggered by active subduction in Java Trench which active since long time ago. To detect tsunami and active tectonic in Southern Java, paleo-tsunami study is performed which is targeted paleo-tsunami deposit older than fifty years ago. During 2011 - 2016, 16 locations which suspected as paleo-tsunami location were visited and the test-pits were performed to obtain characteristic and stratigraphy of paleo-tsunami layers. Paleo-tsunami layer was identified by the presence of light-sand in the upper part of paleo-soil, liquefaction fine grain sandstone, and many rip-up clast of mudstone. The systematic samples were taken and analysis (micro-fauna, grainsize and dating analysis). Micro-fauna result shows that paleo-tsunami layer consist of benthonic foraminifera assemblages from different bathymetry and mixing in one layer. Moreover, grainsize shows random grain distribution which characterized as turbulence and strong wave deposit. Paleo-tsunami layers in Cilacap area are correlated using paleo-soil as marker. There are three paleo-tsunami layers and the distribution can be identified as PS-A, PS-B and PS-C. The samples which were taken in Glempang Pasir layer are being dated using Pb – Zn (Lead-Zinc) method. The result of Pb - Zn (Lead-Zinc) dating shows that PS-A was deposited in 139 years ago, PS-B in 21 years ago, and PS C in 10 years ago. This result indicates that PS -1 occurred in 1883 earthquake activity while PS B formed in 1982 earthquake and PS-C was formed by 2006 earthquake. For ongoing research, the older paleo-tsunami layers were determined in the Gua Nagaraja, close to Selok location and 6 layers of Paleo-tsunami suspect found which shown a similar characteristic with the layers from another location. The three layers deeper approximately have an older age than another location in Cilacap.

10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012001

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Citations (11)

The relocated catalog of the 2022 Pasaman (West Sumatra) earthquake

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2022)

Pepen Supendi Nicholas Rawlinson Bambang S. Prayitno Dimas Sianipar Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak

The relocated catalog of the 2022 Pasaman (West Sumatra) earthquake Please refer to: Supendi, P., Rawlinson, N., Prayitno, B.S., Sianipar, D., Simanjuntak, A., Widiyantoro, S., Palgunadi, K.H., Kurniawan, A., Shiddiqi, H.A., Nugraha, A.D., Sahara, D.P., Daryono, D., Triyono, R., Adi, S.P., Karnawati, D., Daniarsyad, G., Ahadi, S., Fatchurochman, I., Anugrah, S.D., Heryandoko, N., Sudrajat, A. (2022). A hidden fault revealed by the February 25, 2022 (Mw 6.1) Pasaman Earthquake, West Sumatra, Indonesia, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 106973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2022.106973

10.5281/zenodo.7096483

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A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Nick Horspool Ignatius Pranantyo Jonathan Griffin Hamzah Latief D. H. Natawidjaja

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Return period

Hazard map

10.5194/nhessd-2-3423-2014

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Citations (14)

The Kalaotoa Fault: A Newly Identified Fault that Generated the Mw 7.3 Flores Sea Earthquake

The Seismic Record (2022)

Pepen Supendi Nicholas Rawlinson Bambang S. Prayitno Sri Widiyantoro Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak

Abstract We reveal the existence of a previously unknown fault that generated the Mw 7.3 Flores Sea earthquake, which occurred on 14 December 2021, approximately 100 km to the north of Flores Island, in one of the most complex tectonic settings in Indonesia. We use a double-difference method to relocate the hypocenters of the mainshock and aftershocks, determine focal mechanisms using waveform inversion, and then analyze stress changes to estimate the fault type and stress transfer. Our relocated hypocenters show that this earthquake sequence ruptured on at least three segments: the source mechanism of the mainshock exhibits dextral strike-slip motion (strike N72°W and dip 78° NE) on a west–east-trending fault that we call the Kalaotoa fault, whereas rupture of the other two segments located to the west and east of the mainshock (striking west-northwest and southeast, respectively) may have been triggered by this earthquake. The Coulomb stress change imparted by the rupture of these segments on nearby faults is investigated, with a focus on regions that experience a stress increase with few associated aftershocks. Of particular interest are stress increases on the central back-arc thrust just north of Flores and the north–south-striking Selayar fault in the northwest of our study region, both of which may be at increased risk of failure as a result of this unusual earthquake sequence.

Focal mechanism

North Anatolian Fault

Thrust fault

10.1785/0320220015

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Citations (16)