Michael Obersteiner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Philippe Ciais

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Peter Havlík

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Josep Peñuelas

Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB

Steffen Fritz

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Ivan A. Janssens

University of Antwerp

Florian Kraxner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Ian McCallum

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Jordi Sardans

Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications

Linda See

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nikolay Khabarov

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

168

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

University of Oxford

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Wageningen University & Research

John Wiley & Sons (United States)

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives

Chinese Academy of Sciences

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Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (2019)

Thomas Gasser M. Kechiar Philippe Ciais Eleanor Burke Thomas Kleinen

Emission budgets are defined as the cumulative amount of anthropogenic CO2 emission compatible with a global temperature-change target. The simplicity of the concept has made it attractive to policy-makers, yet it relies on a linear approximation of the global carbon–climate system’s response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here we investigate how emission budgets are impacted by the inclusion of CO2 and CH4 emissions caused by permafrost thaw, a non-linear and tipping process of the Earth system. We use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2.1, in which parameterizations of permafrost thaw, soil organic matter decomposition and CO2 and CH4 emission were introduced based on four complex land surface models that specifically represent high-latitude processes. We found that permafrost carbon release makes emission budgets path dependent (that is, budgets also depend on the pathway followed to reach the target). The median remaining budget for the 2 °C target reduces by 8% (1–25%) if the target is avoided and net negative emissions prove feasible, by 13% (2–34%) if they do not prove feasible, by 16% (3–44%) if the target is overshot by 0.5 °C and by 25% (5–63%) if it is overshot by 1 °C. (Uncertainties are the minimum-to-maximum range across the permafrost models and scenarios.) For the 1.5 °C target, reductions in the median remaining budget range from ~10% to more than 100%. We conclude that the world is closer to exceeding the budget for the long-term target of the Paris Climate Agreement than previously thought.

Earth system science

Path dependent

Carbon fibers

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Nutrient availability as the key regulator of global forest carbon balance (vol 4, pg 471, 2014)

Nature Climate Change (2015)

José Martı́nez-Fernández Sara Vicca Ivan A. Janssens Jordi Sardans Sebastiaan Luyssaert

Carbon fibers

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Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Nature Climate Change (2019)

Stephanie Roe Charlotte Streck Michael Obersteiner Stefan Frank Bronson W. Griscom

Limiting

Scope (computer science)

10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9

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Citations (471)

How to spend a dwindling greenhouse gas budget

Nature Climate Change (2017)

Michael Obersteiner Johannes Bednar Fabian Wagner Thomas Gasser Philippe Ciais

10.1038/s41558-017-0045-1

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Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target

Global Change Biology (2016)

Eva Wollenberg Meryl Richards Pete Smith Peter Havlík Michael Obersteiner

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2 e yr-1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21-40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit.

10.1111/gcb.13340

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Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

Nature Communications (2017)

S. Walsh Philippe Ciais Ivan A. Janssens Josep Peñuelas Keywan Riahi

Abstract In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.

Carbon sink

10.1038/ncomms14856

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Plant invasion is associated with higher plant–soil nutrient concentrations in nutrient‐poor environments

Global Change Biology (2016)

Jordi Sardans Mireia Bartrons Olga Margalef Albert Gargallo‐Garriga Ivan A. Janssens

Plant invasion is an emerging driver of global change worldwide. We aimed to disentangle its impacts on plant-soil nutrient concentrations. We conducted a meta-analysis of 215 peer-reviewed articles and 1233 observations. Invasive plant species had globally higher N and P concentrations in photosynthetic tissues but not in foliar litter, in comparison with their native competitors. Invasive plants were also associated with higher soil C and N stocks and N, P, and K availabilities. The differences in N and P concentrations in photosynthetic tissues and in soil total C and N, soil N, P, and K availabilities between invasive and native species decreased when the environment was richer in nutrient resources. The results thus suggested higher nutrient resorption efficiencies in invasive than in native species in nutrient-poor environments. There were differences in soil total N concentrations but not in total P concentrations, indicating that the differences associated to invasive plants were related with biological processes, not with geochemical processes. The results suggest that invasiveness is not only a driver of changes in ecosystem species composition but that it is also associated with significant changes in plant-soil elemental composition and stoichiometry.

Plant litter

Nutrient cycle

10.1111/gcb.13384

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Citations (187)

Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

Applied Energy (2003)

Jesús Crespo Cuaresma Jaroslava Hlouskova Stephan Kossmeier Michael Obersteiner

Univariate

Electricity Price Forecasting

Probabilistic Forecasting

10.1016/s0306-2619(03)00096-5

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African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption

Global Change Biology (2014)

Marijn van der Velde Christian Folberth Juraj Balkovič Philippe Ciais Steffen Fritz

Abstract The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production has been known for decades, but robust assessments of the impact of increasingly unbalanced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) application rates on crop production are lacking. Here, we use crop response functions based on 741 FAO maize crop trials and EPIC crop modeling across Africa to examine maize yield deficits resulting from unbalanced N : P applications under low, medium, and high input scenarios, for past (1975), current, and future N : P mass ratios of respectively, 1 : 0.29, 1 : 0.15, and 1 : 0.05. At low N inputs (10 kg ha −1 ), current yield deficits amount to 10% but will increase up to 27% under the assumed future N : P ratio, while at medium N inputs (50 kg N ha −1 ), future yield losses could amount to over 40%. The EPIC crop model was then used to simulate maize yields across Africa. The model results showed relative median future yield reductions at low N inputs of 40%, and 50% at medium and high inputs, albeit with large spatial variability. Dominant low‐quality soils such as Ferralsols, which are strongly adsorbing P, and Arenosols with a low nutrient retention capacity, are associated with a strong yield decline, although Arenosols show very variable crop yield losses at low inputs. Optimal N : P ratios, i.e. those where the lowest amount of applied P produces the highest yield (given N input) where calculated with EPIC to be as low as 1 : 0.5. Finally, we estimated the additional P required given current N inputs, and given N inputs that would allow Africa to close yield gaps (ca. 70%). At current N inputs, P consumption would have to increase 2.3‐fold to be optimal, and to increase 11.7‐fold to close yield gaps. The P demand to overcome these yield deficits would provide a significant additional pressure on current global extraction of P resources.

Consumption

10.1111/gcb.12481

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Citations (85)

Reply to 'Uncertain effects of nutrient availability on global forest carbon balance' and 'Data quality and the role of nutrients in forest carbon-use efficiency'

Nature Climate Change (2015)

Marcos Fernández‐Martínez Sara Vicca Ivan A. Janssens Jordi Sardans Sebastiaan Luyssaert

Carbon fibers

10.1038/nclimate2794

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Citations (2)