Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.
Since the early 2000s, observations from 14 coastal permafrost sites have been updated, providing a synopsis of how changes in the Arctic System are intensifying the dynamics of permafrost coasts in the 21st Century. Observations from all but 1 of the 14 permafrost coastal sites around the Arctic indicate that decadal-scale erosion rates are increasing. The US and Canadian Beaufort Sea coasts have experienced the largest increases in erosion rates since the early-2000s. The mean annual erosion rate in these regions has increased by 80 to 160 % at the five sites with available data, with sites in the Canadian Beaufort Sea experiencing the largest relative increase. The sole available site in the Greenland Sea, on southern Svalbard, indicates an increase in mean annual erosion rates by 66 % since 2000, due primarily to a reduction in nearshore sediment supply from glacial recession. At the five sites along the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas in Siberia, mean annual erosion rates increased between 33 and 97 % since the early to mid-2000s. The only site to experience a decrease in mean annual erosion (- 40%) was located in the Chukchi Sea in Alaska. Interestingly, the other site in the Chukchi Sea experienced one of the highest increases in mean annual erosion (+160%) over the same period. In general, a considerable increase in the variability of erosion and deposition intensity was also observed along most of the sites.
Abstract Plant‐mediated CH 4 flux is an important pathway for land–atmosphere CH 4 emissions, but the magnitude, timing, and environmental controls, spanning scales of space and time, remain poorly understood in arctic tundra wetlands, particularly under the long‐term effects of climate change. CH 4 fluxes were measured in situ during peak growing season for the dominant aquatic emergent plants in the Alaskan arctic coastal plain, Carex aquatilis and Arctophila fulva , to assess the magnitude and species‐specific controls on CH 4 flux. Plant biomass was a strong predictor of A. fulva CH 4 flux while water depth and thaw depth were copredictors for C. aquatilis CH 4 flux. We used plant and environmental data from 1971 to 1972 from the historic International Biological Program ( IBP ) research site near Barrow, Alaska, which we resampled in 2010–2013, to quantify changes in plant biomass and thaw depth, and used these to estimate species‐specific decadal‐scale changes in CH 4 fluxes. A ~60% increase in CH 4 flux was estimated from the observed plant biomass and thaw depth increases in tundra ponds over the past 40 years. Despite covering only ~5% of the landscape, we estimate that aquatic C. aquatilis and A. fulva account for two‐thirds of the total regional CH 4 flux of the Barrow Peninsula. The regionally observed increases in plant biomass and active layer thickening over the past 40 years not only have major implications for energy and water balance, but also have significantly altered land–atmosphere CH 4 emissions for this region, potentially acting as a positive feedback to climate warming.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution. However, the direction and magnitude of local plant diversity changes have not been explored thus far at a pan-Arctic scale. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots at 45 study areas across the Arctic, we quantified how species richness and composition have changed over time during a period of up to four decades (1981 – 2022), and identified the geographic, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. Despite plant species richness being greater at lower latitudes and warmer plots, pan-Arctic species richness did not change directionally over time at the plot level. However, 99% of the plots experienced changes in species abundance, with 66% of plots either gaining or losing species. Species richness increased most where temperatures had warmed most over time, and shrub expansion led to greater species losses and decreasing richness. Yet, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other over time, suggesting that no biotic homogenisation has occurred thus far. Overall, we found that Arctic plots changed in richness and composition in all possible directions, yet climate and biotic interactions still emerged as the main drivers of directional change. Our results show a variety of diversity trends, which could be precursors of future changes for Arctic plant biodiversity, ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and livelihoods for Arctic Communities.
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