Stacy R. Stewart

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Lixion A. Avila

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

James L. Franklin

NOAA National Weather Service

Richard J. Pasch

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Miles B. Lawrence

NOAA Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

John L. Beven

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Eric S. Blake

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Richard D. Knabb

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jack L. Beven

Daniel P. Brown

American University of the Middle East

R Ichard J. Pasch

Cooperative Institutions

NOAA National Weather Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

University of Washington

Florida State University

University of Miami

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Colorado State University

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Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010

Monthly Weather Review (2012)

Stacy R. Stewart John P. Cangialosi

Abstract The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was one of the least active seasons on record. Only seven named storms developed, which is the lowest number observed at least since routine satellite coverage of that basin began in 1966. Furthermore, only three of those storms reached hurricane status, which is also the lowest number of hurricanes ever observed in the satellite-era season. However, two tropical storms made landfall: Agatha in Guatemala and Georgette in Mexico, with Agatha directly causing 190 deaths and moderate to severe property damage as a result of rain-induced floods and mud slides. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2010 were quite skillful.

Atlantic hurricane

Landfall

10.1175/mwr-d-11-00152.1

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Citations (10)

Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Deep Convective Cyclonic “Left Movers”

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (2013)

Wallace Hogsett Stacy R. Stewart

Abstract Deep convective processes play an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) formation and intensification. In this study, the authors investigate the interaction between discrete buoyant updrafts and the vertically sheared azimuthal flow of an idealized TC vortex by adapting the updraft–shear dynamical framework to the TC. The authors argue theoretically that deep updrafts initiating near the TC radius of maximum wind (RMW) may propagate with a component left of the mean tangential flow, or radially inward toward the TC center. Results suggest that these unique TC updrafts, or “left movers” with respect to the mean azimuthal flow, may play an active role in TC intensification. The notion that updraft-scale convection may propagate with a component transverse to the mean flow is not at all new. Cyclonic midlatitude supercell thunderstorms often deviate from their mean environmental flow, always to the right of the environmental vertical shear vector. The deviant motion arises owing to nonlinear interactions between the incipient updraft and the environmental vertical shear. Although significant differences exist between the idealized TC considered here and real TCs, observational and high-resolution operational modeling evidence suggests that some intense TC updrafts may propagate with a radially inward and right-of-shear component and exhibit structural characteristics consistent with theory. The authors propose that left movers constitute a unique class of intense TC updrafts that may be favored near the TC RMW where local vertical shear of the TC azimuthal winds may be maximized. To simulate these left movers in a realistic way, mesoscale TC forecasting models must resolve nonlinear interactions between updrafts and vertical shear.

Supercell

10.1175/jas-d-12-0284.1

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Citations (9)

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2011*

Monthly Weather Review (2013)

Lixion A. Avila Stacy R. Stewart

Abstract The 2011 Atlantic season was marked by above-average tropical cyclone activity with the formation of 19 tropical storms. Seven of the storms became hurricanes and four became major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). The numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes were above the long-term averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Despite the high level of activity, Irene was the only hurricane to hit land in 2011, striking both the Bahamas and the United States. Other storms, however, affected the United States, eastern Canada, Central America, eastern Mexico, and the northeastern Caribbean Sea islands. The death toll from the 2011 Atlantic tropical cyclones is 80. National Hurricane Center mean official track forecast errors in 2011 were smaller than the previous 5-yr means at all forecast times except 120 h. In addition, the official track forecast errors set records for accuracy at the 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-h forecast times. The mean intensity forecast errors in 2011 ranged from about 6 kt (~3 m s−1) at 12 h to about 17 kt (~9 m s−1) at 72 and 120 h. These errors were below the 5-yr means at all forecast times.

Atlantic hurricane

Tropical cyclone scales

10.1175/mwr-d-12-00230.1

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Citations (24)

The 2018 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season: An Active Season Brings Third-Highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy on Record

Weatherwise (2019)

Stacy R. Stewart

The 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season featured well-above-average tropical cyclone activity. Of the 22 tropical storms that formed, 13 became hurricanes and nine reached major hurricane s...

Tropical cyclone scales

10.1080/00431672.2019.1612202

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Citations (2)

The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Fewer Storms, with Some Highlights

Weatherwise (2016)

Stacy R. Stewart

Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the 2015 season was below average. Of the 11 tropical storms that formed, four became hurricanes, and two reached major hurricane strength (ca...

Atlantic hurricane

Tropical cyclone scales

10.1080/00431672.2016.1159488

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Citations (2)

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2000

Monthly Weather Review (2001)

Miles B. Lawrence Lixion A. Avila Jack L. Beven James L. Franklin Richard J. Pasch

AbstractThere were 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 tropical depressions during the 2000 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Two tropical storms made landfall in Mexico. Corresponding author address: Dr. Miles Lawrence, National Hurricane Center, 11691 S.W. 17 St., Miami, FL 33165-2149. Email: lawrence@nhc.noaa.gov

Atlantic hurricane

Miami

Landfall

10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<3004:enphso>2.0.co;2

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Citations (5)

ANNUAL SUMMARY: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2001

Monthly Weather Review (2003)

John L. Beven Stacy R. Stewart Miles B. Lawrence Lixion A. Avila James L. Franklin

Activity during the 2001 hurricane season was similar to that of the 2000 season. Fifteen tropical storms developed, with nine becoming hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Two tropical depressions failed to become tropical storms. Similarities to the 2000 season include overall activity much above climatological levels and most of the cyclones occurring over the open Atlantic north of 25°N. The overall "lateness" of the season was notable, with 11 named storms, including all the hurricanes, forming after 1 September. There were no hurricane landfalls in the United States for the second year in a row. However, the season's tropical cyclones were responsible for 93 deaths, including 41 from Tropical Storm Allison in the United States, and 48 from Hurricanes Iris and Michelle in the Caribbean.

Atlantic hurricane

Tropical cyclone scales

10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1454:ashso>2.0.co;2

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Citations (121)