Diagnostics of energy and moisture transport and disposal over the Antarctic polar cap (70°S to the pole) and ice sheet are extracted from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis archive over the 1979–93 period. Transport across 70°S is obtained from the 6-hourly analyses of wind, temperature, moisture, and geopotential, whereas top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance and surface energy and water fluxes are evaluated from 6- and 12-h forecasts. A full decomposition of transport is made and tabulated in terms of seasons, dynamic components (mean meridional, stationary eddy, transient eddy), and type of energy (sensible, latent, geopotential). For instance, in terms of type of energy, about 50% of the total converged to the polar cap is geopotential, which is almost entirely advected by the mean meridional circulation. Even though atmospheric moisture is very low, latent heat transport accounts for almost 20% of the total energy import, mostly by the transient eddies. In terms of dynamic components, transient eddies alone import about 50% of the total energy in the form of sensible and latent heat. Some components actually export energy from the polar cap, and the variety of signatures exhibited by the transport decomposition may prove useful to check the dynamics of climate models in the very high southern latitudes. According to the analyses, the total annual mean energy input to the polar cap south of 70°S by the atmospheric circulation is 80.8 W m−2 of horizontal surface. The short-term forecasts suggest that the oceanic import is much smaller, of the order of model and analysis uncertainties. The interannual variability of atmospheric energy convergence is unreasonably large, and it is partly, yet not quite convincingly, correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. No convincing correlation is found either between moisture convergence from analyses or surface water budget from forecasts and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This result contradicts a previous study using the ECMWF operational analyses, which are more prone to spurious variability than the reanalyses and associated forecasts used here. The interannual variability of moisture convergence is large but reasonable, about 25% of the annual mean. It might be useful as a control against which to check the dynamics of the hydrological cycle of climate models in the high southern latitudes.
Abstract This work presents snapshot simulations of the late 20th and late 21st century Antarctic climate under the RCP8.5 scenario carried out with an empirically bias‐corrected global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), forced with bias‐corrected sea‐surface temperatures and sea ice and run with about 100‐km resolution over Antarctica. The bias correction substantially improves the simulated mean late 20th century climate. The simulated atmospheric circulation of the bias‐corrected model compares very favorably to the best available AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)‐type climate models. The simulated interannual circulation variability is improved by the bias correction. Depending on the metric, a slight improvement or degradation is found in the simulated variability on synoptic timescales. The simulated climate change over the 21st century is broadly similar in the corrected and uncorrected versions of the atmospheric model, and atmospheric circulation patterns are not geographically “pinned” by the applied bias correction. These results suggest that the method presented here can be used for bias‐corrected climate projections. Finally, the authors discuss different possible choices in terms of the place of bias corrections and other intermediate steps in the modeling chain leading from global coupled climate simulations to impact assessment.
Abstract. Predicting the climate for the future and how it will impact ice sheet evolution requires coupling ice sheet models with climate models. However, before we attempt to develop a realistic coupled setup, we propose, in this study, to first analyse the impact of a model simulated climate on an ice sheet. We undertake this exercise for a set of regional and global climate models. Modelled near surface air temperature and precipitation are provided as upper boundary conditions to the GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice model) hybrid ice sheet model (ISM) in its Greenland configuration. After 20 kyrs of simulation, the resulting ice sheets highlight the differences between the climate models. While modelled ice sheet sizes are generally comparable to the observed one, there are considerable deviations among the ice sheets on regional scales. These deviations can be explained by biases in temperature and precipitation near the coast. This is especially true in the case of global models. But the deviations between the climate models are also due to the differences in the atmospheric general circulation. To account for these differences in the context of coupling ice sheet models with climate models, we conclude that appropriate downscaling methods will be needed. In some cases, systematic corrections of the climatic variables at the interface may be required to obtain realistic results for the Greenland ice sheet (GIS).
Abstract. Thawing of permafrost in a warming climate is governed by a complex interplay of different processes, of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. However, observations in many permafrost landscapes demonstrate that lateral and vertical movement of water can have a pronounced influence on the thaw trajectories, creating distinct landforms like thermokarst ponds and lakes even in areas where permafrost is otherwise thermally stable. Novel process parameterizations are required to include such phenomena in future projections of permafrost thaw and hereby triggered climatic feedbacks. In this study, we present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes. We document the model physics and employed parameterizations for the basis module CryoGrid 3, and compare model results with in-situ observations of surface energy balance, surface temperatures, and ground thermal regime from the Samoylov permafrost observatory in NE Siberia. The comparison suggests that CryoGrid 3 can not only model the evolution of the ground thermal regime in the last decade, but also consistently reproduce the chain of energy transfer processes from the atmosphere to the ground. In addition, we demonstrate a simple 1-D parameterization for thaw process in permafrost areas rich in ground ice, which can phenomenologically reproduce both formation of thermokarst ponds and subsidence of the ground following thawing of ice-rich subsurface layers. Long-term simulation from 1901–2100 driven by reanalysis data and climate model output demonstrate that the hydrological regime can both accelerate and delay permafrost thawing. If meltwater from thawed ice-rich layers can drain, the ground subsides while at the same time the formation of a talik is delayed. If the meltwater pools at the surface, a pond is formed which enhances heat transfer in the ground and leads to the formation of a talik. The model results suggest that the trajectories of future permafrost thaw are strongly influenced by the cryostratigraphy, as determined by the late quaternary history of a site.
Abstract. Vegetation reconstructions from pollen data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 kyr ago, reveal lanscapes radically different from the modern ones, with, in particular, a massive regression of forested areas in both hemispheres. Two main factors have to be taken into account to explain these changes in comparison to today's potential vegetation: a generally cooler and drier climate and a lower level of atmospheric CO2. In order to assess the relative impact of climate and atmospheric CO2 changes on the global vegetation, we simulate the potential modern vegetation and the glacial vegetation with the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, driven by outputs from the IPSL_CM4_v1 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, under modern or glacial CO2 levels for photosynthesis. ORCHIDEE correctly reproduces the broad features of the glacial vegetation. Our modelling results support the view that the physiological effect of glacial CO2 is a key factor to explain vegetation changes during glacial times. In our simulations, the low atmospheric CO2 is the only driver of the tropical forests regression, and explains half of the response of temperate and boreal forests to glacial conditions. Our study shows that the sensitivity to CO2 changes depends on the background climate over a region, and also depends on the vegetation type, needleleaf trees being much more sensitive than broadleaf trees in our model. This difference of sensitivity leads to a dominance of broadleaf types in the remaining simulated forests, which is not supported by pollen data, but nonetheless suggests a potential impact of CO2 on the glacial vegetation assemblages. It also modifies the competitivity between the trees and makes the amplitude of the response to CO2 dependent on the initial vegetation state.
Abstract. In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The bias reduction with respect to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 % to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature increase (+7.7 % K−1 and +9 % K−1) found is also higher than previous estimates. The highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low.
