A. Llinares

Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias

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Alicia Garcı́a

Radiotelevisione Italiana (Italy)

J. M. Marrero

Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional

Ramón Ortiz

Instituto de Geociencias

Manuel Berrocoso

Universidad de Cádiz

R. Ortiz

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

José A. Rodríguez-Losada

Universidad de La Laguna

Ramon Ramis

Instituto de Geociencias

Silvia Ramos

Universidad de Ciencias y Artes de Chiapas

Servando De la Cruz‐Reyna

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Antonio Rodríguez-Losada

Universidad de La Laguna

Cooperative Institutions

Instituto de Geociencias

Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales

Universidad de La Laguna

National Research Council

Universidad de Granada

Antarctica New Zealand

Consorzio Venezia Ricerche

Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias

Universidad de Ciencias y Artes de Chiapas

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Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)

Natural Hazards (2013)

J. M. Marrero Alicia Garcı́a A. Llinares Servando De la Cruz‐Reyna Silvia Ramos

Natural hazard

Volcanic hazards

Crisis Management

10.1007/s11069-013-0672-4

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Citations (20)

Strategies for the development of volcanic hazard maps in monogenetic volcanic fields: the example of La Palma (Canary Islands)

Journal of Applied Volcanology (2019)

J. M. Marrero Alicia Garcı́a Manuel Berrocoso A. Llinares Antonio Rodríguez-Losada

Traditionally volcanic-hazard assessments have been applied to stratovolcanoes, where volcanic hazard maps represent important tools for volcanic crisis management and land-use planning. In recent years, several improvements have been made for monogenetic volcanic fields focused on, among other things, the development of spatial models to deal with one of the main problems in these areas, namely the unknown vent location. However, volcanic hazard maps of monogenetic volcanic fields present some significant differences with respect to those developed for stratovolcanoes, including the fact that they commonly represent multiple eruptive processes spread over the possible vent opening area. Likewise, the scientific communication of the volcanic-hazard assessment and how this information is comprehended are critical issues in the development of mitigation strategies for monogenetic volcanic fields. In this research, we focused on developing volcanic hazard maps using simple numerical hazard models in combination with a random approach for vent location to cover the whole vent opening area. We added some spatial methods to better manage potentially affected areas. The maps were designed for use in a digital environment (Geographic Information System) by Civil Protection professionals in high-risk monogenetic volcanic fields on small oceanic islands. The methodology presented does not use susceptibility base maps for hazard assessment to avoid possible underestimation of low probability areas by Civil Protection. The methodology represents an attempt to respond to the most important questions of where, when and how a new eruption might take place in a monogenetic volcanic field. The example presented here was developed for La Palma (Canary Islands).

Stratovolcano

Volcanic hazards

Hazard map

Vulcanian eruption

10.1186/s13617-019-0085-5

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Citations (17)

Risk management issues in tourist regions with explosive volcanism: The Teide's 2004 unrest, Canary Islands

Annals of Geophysics (2018)

Ramon Ramis J. M. Marrero Alicia Garcı́a A. Llinares Víctor Andrade de Melo

Volcanic crisis management in small and densely populated islands is extremely complex. Preparedness 15 is critical to give an adequate response to volcanic unrest and reduce economic losses. However, such preparedness takes time, and involves a variety of groups of people and institutions, sometimes not only because of the requirements of knowledge with respect to self-protection but also because people must be made to change their understanding of the environment. Experience is vital if preparedness is to be improved meaning that the society at risk and the institutions involved in the management 20 sometimes have to face eruptive process. A key factor here is the magnitude and behavior of eruptive events, how these are understood by people and decision-makers, plus the ability to use them as real- life drills. Lower-medium magnitude eruptive events may help to better understand how these natural processes work but may give the impression that such events are easy to manage. Large eruptive events without preparedness can be catastrophic, and may be arduous to recover from as a result. The 25 idiosyncrasy of the society at risk plays a significant role here, thus improvements vary worldwide. In the present study, we address the initial situation in Tenerife (The Canary Islands) in 2004 and the local people's resulting response, while addressing other situations such as the pressure exerted by 1 international tour-operators or the tourist industry in general, the conflicting views of the scientists and how these affected the people, together with an overview of the management of the seismic catalog in 30 the Canary Islands as a key factor in volcanic crisis management. Current achievements will be compared to the situation given in 2004.

Unrest

Preparedness

Crisis Management

10.4401/ag-7698

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Citations (3)

The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM): a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Natural hazards and earth system sciences (2010)

J. M. Marrero Alicia Garcı́a A. Llinares José A. Rodríguez-Losada R. Ortiz

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant). Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM). The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc.) and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

Volcanic hazards

Natural hazard

Civil defense

Emergency Evacuation

Crisis Management

10.5194/nhess-10-747-2010

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Citations (15)

A direct approach to estimating the number of potential fatalities from an eruption: Application to the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife Island

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (2012)

J. M. Marrero Alicia Garcı́a A. Llinares José A. Rodríguez-Losada R. Ortiz

Volcanic hazards

Representation

10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.01.008

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Citations (10)

Legal framework and scientific responsibilities during volcanic crises: the case of the El Hierro eruption (2011–2014)

Journal of Applied Volcanology (2015)

J. M. Marrero Alicia Garcı́a A. Llinares Manuel Berrocoso Ramón Ortiz

In recent years concerns have been growing in the scientific community over the definition of scientific responsibilities during emergencies, and the legal status of scientists involved in the corresponding decision-making. It is clear that the legal framework is one of the main elements affecting this issue; however, many factors may affect both the specific scientific decision-making and the definition of general scientific responsibilities. The situation will vary depending on the type and scale of emergency, and from place to place, even in the same country. There will be no such thing as a single, ideal solution. In the latest El Hierro volcanic crisis many factors have negatively affected the scientific management and have prevented an adequate definition of scientific responsibility. These factors have been detected and documented by the authors. They include excessive pressure due to human and economic issues, a poor legal framework with identifiable deficiencies, an Emergency Plan in which the Volcanic Activity/Alert Level (VAL), Emergency Response Level (ERL) and Volcanic Traffic Light (VTL) have been too rigidly linked, serious weaknesses in the management and structure of the Scientific Committee (SC), and more. Even though some of these problems have now been detected and certain solutions have already been proposed, the slowness and complexity of the bureaucratic processes are making it difficult to implement solutions.

Bureaucracy

10.1186/s13617-015-0028-8

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Citations (11)