Philippe Palany

Météo-France

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Co-Authors

Ali Belmadani

Météo-France

Yann Krien

Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales

Raphaël Cécé

Géosciences Montpellier

Narcisse Zahibo

Université des Antilles

Didier Bernard

Université des Antilles

Gaël Arnaud

Université des Antilles

Fabrice Chauvin

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

Romain Pilon

University of Lausanne

Fabien Durand

Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales

Laurent Testut

La Rochelle Université

Cooperative Institutions

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Météo-France

Institut de Recherche pour le Développement

Université de Toulouse

Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

Université des Antilles

Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier

Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées

Géosciences Montpellier

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Application of a high-resolution ensemble prediction system to the prediction of tropical cyclones over the West Indies basin.

AGUFM (2019)

Laure Raynaud Ghislain Faure François Bonnardot Olivier Bousquet Sylvie Malardel

Atlantic hurricane

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A 30-m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles

Raphaël Cécé Didier Bernard Yann Krien Frédéric Leone Thomas Candela

Abstract. In view of the high vulnerability of the Lesser Antilles small islands to cyclonic hazards, realistic very fine scale numerical simulation of hurricane-induced winds is essential to prevent and manage risks. The present innovative modeling aims at combining the most realistic simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Nonlinear Backscatter and Anisotropy (NBA) Large Eddy Simulation (LES) configuration was used to reconstruct the devastating landfall of category 5 Hurricane Irma (2017) on Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin islands. The results pointed out that the 30-m scale seems necessary to simulate intense 400-m scale vortices leading to extreme peak gusts like 132 m s−1 over sea. Risk areas associated with terrain gust speed-up factors greater than one have been identified for the two islands. The comparison between the simulated gusts and the remote sensing building damages highlighted the major role of structure strength linked with the socio-economic development of the territory. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damages and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.

Landfall

Natural hazard

Atlantic hurricane

10.5194/nhess-2020-241

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Citations (2)

The importance of using a high-resolution model to study the climate change on small islands: the Lesser Antilles case

Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (2014)

Philippe Cantet Michel Déqué Philippe Palany Jean-Louis Maridet

High-resolution climate change simulations over the Lesser Antilles are performed using the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model nested within the global model ARPEGE (Météo-France). Three sets of simulations are conducted at 10 km grid spacing for reference (1971–2000) and future climate (2071–2100) under two CMIP5 scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). With the dynamical downscaling, islands of Lesser Antilles are considered as land by the model, whereas, for the driving model, there is only sea over the domain. Temperature and precipitation change are analysed on land and on sea separately. For temperature, the warming is greater on land than on sea, especially for the minimum daily temperature (3.2°C vs. 2.3°C for the RCP85 scenario). For precipitation, projections are less reliable because the seasonality is not well reproduced by the model. Nevertheless, simulations exhibit the fact that projections on land differ from one island to the other and disagree with those on sea notably during the wet season. This underlines the importance of the dynamical downscaling to study the climate on small islands. Statistical downscaling has been performed on the Guadeloupe Island to study changes in extreme precipitation indices. The projections provided by the regional climate model suggest an increase in extreme rainfall events: longer dry periods, a bigger annual total precipitation, more frequent very heavy daily precipitation and a stronger 1 d maximum precipitation, whereas for the driving Global Climate Model, these trends are less intense.

10.3402/tellusa.v66.24065

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Citations (24)

Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution

Climate Dynamics (2019)

Fabrice Chauvin Romain Pilon Philippe Palany Ali Belmadani

Atlantic hurricane

Horizontal resolution

Atmospheric models

Quantile

10.1007/s00382-019-05040-4

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Citations (28)

Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

Climate Dynamics (2021)

Ali Belmadani Alice Dalphinet Fabrice Chauvin Romain Pilon Philippe Palany

Atlantic hurricane

Tropical cyclone scales

Storm Surge

Anticyclone

African easterly jet

Significant wave height

10.1007/s00382-021-05664-5

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Citations (16)

Improving Parametric Cyclonic Wind Fields Using Recent Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Yann Krien Gaël Arnaud Raphaël Cécé Jamal Khan A Madani

Parametric cyclonic wind fields are widely used worldwide for insurance risk underwriting, coastal planning, or storm surge forecasts. They support high-stakes financial, development, and emergency decisions. Yet, there is still no consensus on the best parametric approach, or relevant guidance to choose among the great variety of published models. The aim of this paper is first and foremost to demonstrate that recent progresses on estimating extreme surface wind speeds from satellite remote sensing now makes it possible to select the best option with greater objectivity. In particular, we show that the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission of NASA is able to capture a substantial part of the tropical cyclones structure, and allows identifying systematic biases in a number of parametric models. Our results also suggest that none of the traditional empirical approaches can be considered as the best option in all cases. Rather, the choice of a parametric model depends on several criteria such as cyclone intensity and/or availability of wind radii information. The benefit of using satellite remote sensing data to better select a parametric model for a specific case study is tested here by simulating hurricane Maria (2017). The significant wave heights computed by a wave-current hydrodynamic coupled model are found to be in good accordance with the predictions given by the remote sensing data in terms of bias. The results and approach presented in this study should shed new light on how to handle parametric cyclonic wind models, and help the scientific community to conduct better wind, waves and surge analysis for tropical cyclones.

Storm Surge

10.20944/preprints201803.0095.v2

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Citations (6)

Mapping Entomological Dengue Risk Levels in Martinique Using High-Resolution Remote-Sensing Environmental Data

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information (2014)

Vanessa Machault André Yébakima Manuel Étienne Cécile Vignolles Philippe Palany

Controlling dengue virus transmission mainly involves integrated vector management. Risk maps at appropriate scales can provide valuable information for assessing entomological risk levels. Here, results from a spatio-temporal model of dwellings potentially harboring Aedes aegypti larvae from 2009 to 2011 in Tartane (Martinique, French Antilles) using high spatial resolution remote-sensing environmental data and field entomological and meteorological information are presented. This tele-epidemiology methodology allows monitoring the dynamics of diseases closely related to weather/climate and environment variability. A Geoeye-1 image was processed to extract landscape elements that could surrogate societal or biological information related to the life cycle of Aedes vectors. These elements were subsequently included into statistical models with random effect. Various environmental and meteorological conditions have indeed been identified as risk/protective factors for the presence of Aedes aegypti immature stages in dwellings at a given date. These conditions were used to produce dynamic high spatio-temporal resolution maps from the presence of most containers harboring larvae. The produced risk maps are examples of modeled entomological maps at the housing level with daily temporal resolution. This finding is an important contribution to the development of targeted operational control systems for dengue and other vector-borne diseases, such as chikungunya, which is also present in Martinique.

Martinique

Environmental data

10.3390/ijgi3041352

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Citations (29)

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2017)

Romain Pilon Fabrice Chauvin Philippe Palany Ali Belmadani

Atlantic hurricane

Extratropical cyclone

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Improving Parametric Cyclonic Wind Fields Using CYGNSS (Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System) Data

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2018)

Yann Krien Gaël Arnaud Raphaël Cécé MNH Khan Ali Belmadani

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Orographic Precipitation in the Tropics: The Dominica Experiment

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2012)

Ronald B. Smith Justin R. Minder Alison D. Nugent Trude Storelvmo Daniel J. Kirshbaum

The Dominica Experiment (DOMEX) took place in the eastern Caribbean from 4 April to 10 May 2011 with 21 research flights of the Wyoming King Air and several other observing systems. The goal was an improved understanding of the physics of convective orographic precipitation in the tropics. Two types of convection were found. During a period of weak trade winds, diurnal thermal convection was seen over Dominica. This convection caused little precipitation but carried aloft air with island-derived aerosol and depleted CO2. During periods of strong trades, mechanically forced convection over the windward slopes brought heavy rain to the high terrain. This convection was “seeded” by trade-wind cumuli or neutrally buoyant cool wet patches of air. In this mechanically forced convection, air parcels did not touch the island surface to gain buoyancy so no island-derived tracers were lofted. With fewer aerosols, the mean cloud droplet diameter increased from 15 to 25 μm. Plunging airflow and a wake were found in the lee of Dominica. The DOMEX dataset will advance our understanding and test our theories of cumulus triggering and aerosol influence on precipitation.

Orographic lift

Orography

Atmospheric convection

10.1175/bams-d-11-00194.1

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Citations (77)