Alexandre Bernardes Pezza

Wellington City Council

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Ian Simmonds

University of Melbourne

Caio A. S. Coelho

National Institute for Space Research

Michelle L’Heureux

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Suzana J. Camargo

Columbia University

John A. Knaff

NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research

I.‐I. Lin

National Taiwan University

Eric S. Blake

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Stanley B. Goldenberg

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

Howard J. Diamond

NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

Richard J. Pasch

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Cooperative Institutions

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

167

University of Colorado Boulder

Goddard Space Flight Center

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

University of Alaska Fairbanks

University of Washington

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Associated with Southern Australian Heat Waves: A CMIP5 Analysis

Journal of Climate (2014)

Ariaan Purich Tim Cowan Wenju Cai Peter van Rensch Petteri Uotila

Abstract Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves are examined using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Accompanying work analyzing modeled heat wave statistics for Australia finds substantial increases in the frequency, duration, and temperature of heat waves by the end of the twenty-first century. This study assesses the ability of CMIP5 models to simulate the synoptic and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves, and examines how the classical atmospheric setup associated with heat waves is projected to change in response to mean-state warming. To achieve this, near-surface temperature, mean sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature (SST) from the historical and high-emission simulations are analyzed. CMIP5 models are found to represent the synoptic setup associated with heat waves well, despite showing greater variation in simulating SST anomalies. The models project a weakening of the pressure couplet associated with future southern Australian heat waves, suggesting that even a non-classical synoptic setup is able to generate more frequent heat waves in a warmer world. A future poleward shift and strengthening of heat wave–inducing anticyclones is confirmed using a tracking scheme applied to model projections. Model consensus implies that while anticyclones associated with the hottest future southern Australian heat waves will be more intense and originate farther poleward, a greater proportion of heat waves occur in association with a weaker synoptic setup that, when combined with warmer mean-state temperatures, gives rise to more future heat waves.

Anticyclone

Heat wave

Atmospheric wave

Atmospheric Circulation

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00098.1

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Citations (39)

Relationships between Antarctic cyclones and surface conditions as derived from high-resolution numerical weather prediction data

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2011)

Petteri Uotila Timo Vihma Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Ian Simmonds Kevin Keay

[1] An Antarctic cyclone climatology was created based on simulations of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and the University of Melbourne Cyclone (UM) detection and tracking algorithm for the period 2001–2009. Over 17,000 cyclone tracks were included in the climatology, and 20% of these cyclones were mesoscale in terms of their size. Mesoscale systems were common south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Trough (ACT) over the coastal oceans of the Indian Ocean sector and in the Ross Sea, while large synoptic systems occurred most frequently in the ACT. A novel technique was applied to study the relationships between cyclone characteristics and surface properties over the Southern Ocean and the coastal areas of Antarctica. Our comprehensive study has revealed that up to half of the cyclones simulated by AMPS correlated with the surface latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, or temperature gradient. These cyclones either modified the surface or were being modified by it. In the former category, 85% of the systems were synoptic cyclones associated predominantly with baroclinicity and advection, and the atmospheric boundary layer had a little influence in the generation and development of cyclones. On the contrary, in the latter category, 36% of the systems were mesoscale cyclones gaining energy from instabilities in the boundary layer associated with strong turbulent fluxes.

Cyclogenesis

Extratropical cyclone

10.1029/2010jd015358

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Citations (83)

Southern Hemisphere cyclone and anticyclone behavior during the last decades: recent trends, anomalies and links with the Pacific Ocean variability

Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Ian Simmonds

Anticyclone

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Explosive Cyclogenesis: A Global Climatology Comparing Multiple Reanalyses

Journal of Climate (2010)

John T. Allen Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Mitchell Black

Abstract A global climatology for rapid cyclone intensification has been produced from the second NCEP reanalysis (NCEP2), the 25-yr Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-25), and the ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2008. An improved (combined) criterion for identifying explosive cyclones has been developed based on preexisting definitions, offering a more balanced, normalized climatological distribution. The combined definition was found to significantly alter the population of explosive cyclones, with a reduction in “artificial” systems, which are found to compose 20% of the population determined by earlier definitions. Seasonally, winter was found to be the dominant formative period in both hemispheres, with a lower degree of interseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Considered over the period 1979–2008, little change is observed in the frequency of systems outside of natural interannual variability in either hemisphere. Significant statistical differences have been found between reanalyses in the SH, while in contrast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was characterized by strong positive correlations between reanalyses in almost all examined cases. Spatially, explosive cyclones are distributed into several distinct regions, with two regions in the northwest Pacific and the North Atlantic in the NH and three main regions in the SH. High-resolution and modern reanalysis data were also found to increase the climatology population of rapidly intensifying systems. This indicates that the reanalyses have apparently undergone increasing improvements in consistency over time, particularly in the SH.

Extratropical cyclone

Cyclogenesis

10.1175/2010jcli3437.1

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Citations (88)

The first South Atlantic hurricane: Unprecedented blocking, low shear and climate change

Geophysical Research Letters (2005)

Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Ian Simmonds

In March 2004 the first‐ever reported hurricane in the South Atlantic hit southern Brazil. Here we show that Catarina initiated as an extratropical cyclone in a frontal system, undergoing Tropical Transition two days later under persistent low vertical wind shear over near‐average water temperatures. The trajectory derived from an automatic tracking scheme showed a rare loop before the cyclone approached the coast for a second time. The vertical structure presented anticyclonic relative vorticity above and a small 300 hPa warm core embedded in a cold area. A mid‐to‐high latitude‐blocking index showed that the five days before the genesis were in the 0.6% first percentile of intensity considered over the last 25 years, followed by an unprecedented combination with low shear. The observed and predicted trends towards an increasingly positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in global warming scenarios could favor similar conditions, increasing the probability of more Tropical Cyclones in the South Atlantic.

Extratropical cyclone

Cyclogenesis

Anticyclone

10.1029/2005gl023390

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Citations (137)

State of the Climate in 2011

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2012)

Jean-François Crétaux William Sweet Jake Crouch Taro Takahashi Stuart A. Cunningham

Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2011 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download. Supplemental figures and datasets are available here.

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10.1175/2012bamsstateoftheclimate.1

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Citations (166)

Significant extra‐tropical anomalies in the lead up to the Black Saturday fires

International Journal of Climatology (2015)

Sonya L. Fiddes Alexandre Bernardes Pezza James Renwick

ABSTRACT Black Saturday ( BS ), 7 February 2009, is recognized as Australia's most severe bushfire event on record. The meteorology that day, although extreme, was typical of southeast Australian bushfire events, characterized by gusty northerly winds before a cool change brought strong southerly winds and a dramatic temperature drop. This study investigates a range of extra‐tropical atmospheric (pressure, temperatures) and oceanic temperature anomalies that occurred on or leading up to BS . Results show several parameters were within the top 5% or were record breaking for the satellite era. Of particular note are the anomalies that occurred over the Antarctic region, having the strongest signal and appearing in unison with the pre‐ BS heatwave. We suggest that a combination of a warm polar ocean and an enhanced mid‐latitude thermal contrast in the Indian Ocean aided in triggering sub‐polar blocking and an intense cyclone, which brought the catastrophic cold front on BS .

Extratropical cyclone

Low-pressure area

Lead (geology)

10.1002/joc.4387

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Citations (9)

A methodology of tracking transitioning Cyclones

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science (2010)

Luke Andrew Garde Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Ian Simmonds Noel E. Davidson

Cyclone is a process in which either a cyclone or an cyclone undergoes a fundamental dynamic and thermodynamic transformation. A tropical is a process in which a cold-core cyclone transforms to a warm-core cyclone, while extratropical refers to the opposite mechanism. The transition process is gradual, with no sharp defining threshold representing its commencement or completion. This study develops and explores a methodology of identifying transition and transition events. Using the 1.5° ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset over the period from 1989 to present, cyclone tracks are derived using The Melbourne University Tracking Scheme. The average temperature difference between the cyclone core and an environmental ring, set at a distance corresponding to the cyclones size, is then calculated throughout the troposphere during the life cycle of the cyclone. This difference represents the index or phase of the cyclone relative to its immediate environment. The lack of a complete cyclone transition climatology and the uncertainty behind the transition process is the motivation for this research, with the overarching aim of placing these systems in climatic perspective. This methodology seeks to create the foundations for further cyclone research.

Tracking (education)

10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012007

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A universal, broad‐environment energy conversion signature of explosive cyclones

Geophysical Research Letters (2013)

Mitchell Black Alexandre Bernardes Pezza

This study presents the first analysis of the Lorenz energetics associated with a global climatology of explosive cyclones. Energy budgets of the large‐scale environment are calculated for 32 year climatologies (1980–2011) of explosive cyclones within four of the most active regions in the world: the Northwest Pacific, the North Atlantic, the Southwest Pacific, and the South Atlantic. A robust signature in the Lorenz energy cycle is observed; anomalous energy conversions commence 48 h before explosive cyclone development and remain strong (i.e., significantly above background noise) for 120 h. Remarkably, the calculated signature of energy conversion is virtually identical for all four geographical regions. While the conversions imply a classic baroclinic growth cycle, they are not seen in regular cyclones that undergo a deepening of less than half that exhibited by explosive cyclones. This finding opens a new avenue of exploration of explosive storm behavior based on the large‐scale environment.

Signature (topology)

10.1002/grl.50114

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Citations (26)

Sea ice extension around Antarctica: Association withAustralian rainfall via changes in Southern Hemisphere cyclone and anticyclone behaviour

Th Durrant Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Ian Simmonds A. Ian Smith

Anticyclone

Iceberg

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