Serena Schroeter

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

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Paul A. Sandery

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Will Hobbs

University of Tasmania

T. Okane

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Nathaniel L. Bindoff

Australian Antarctic Division

Richard J. Matear

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Elizabeth H. Shadwick

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Doug Richardson

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

Amanda S. Black

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Philip C. Reid

Bureau of Meteorology

Steven Crimp

Australian National University

Cooperative Institutions

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

University of Tasmania

Australian Antarctic Division

Health Sciences and Nutrition

Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

Bureau of Meteorology

UNSW Sydney

Australian Research Council

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Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode

Serena Schroeter T. Okane Paul A. Sandery

Abstract. Across the long-term (~43 year) satellite record, Antarctic sea ice extent shows a small overall circumpolar increase, resulting from opposing regional sea ice concentration anomalies. Running short-term samples of the same sea ice concentration data, however, show that the long-term trend pattern is skewed towards the earliest years of the satellite record. Compensating regional anomalies diminish over time, and in the most recent decade, these tend towards spatial homogeneity instead. Running 30-year trends show the regional pattern of sea ice behaviour reversing over time; while in some regions, trend patterns abruptly shift in line with the record anomalous sea ice behaviour of recent years, in other regions a steady change predates these record anomalies. The shifting regression patterns are co-located with enhanced north-south flow due to an increasingly wave-3-like structure of the Southern Annular Mode. Sea surface temperature anomalies also shift from a circumpolar cooling to a regional pattern that resembles the increasingly asymmetric structure of the Southern Annular Mode, with warming in regions of previously increasing sea ice such as the Ross Sea.

Circumpolar star

Mode (computer interface)

Temperature record

10.5194/tc-2022-151

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Citations (7)

Sea Ice Suppression of CO ₂ Outgassing in the West Antarctic Peninsula: Implications For The Evolving Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Geophysical Research Letters (2021)

Elizabeth H. Shadwick Olivia A. De Meo Serena Schroeter Mar C. Arroyo Douglas G. Martinson

Abstract The Southern Ocean plays an important role in the uptake of atmospheric CO 2 . In seasonally ice‐covered regions, estimates of air‐sea exchange remain uncertain in part because of a lack of observations outside the summer season. Here we present new estimates of air‐sea CO 2 flux in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) from an autonomous mooring on the continental shelf. In summer, the WAP is a sink for atmospheric CO 2 followed by a slow return to atmospheric equilibrium in autumn and winter. Outgassing is almost entirely suppressed by ice cover from June through October, resulting in a modest net annual CO 2 sink. Model projections indicate sea ice formation will occur later in the season in the coming decades potentially weakening the net oceanic CO 2 sink. Interannual variability in the WAP is significant, highlighting the importance of sustained observations of air‐sea exchange in this rapidly changing region of the Southern Ocean.

Sink (geography)

Outgassing

Peninsula

Carbon sink

10.1029/2020gl091835

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Citations (17)

Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

Serena Schroeter Will Hobbs Nathaniel L. Bindoff

Abstract. The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observation-based data and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during its advance, with the ocean emerging as a dominant driver of sea ice retreat; therefore, while it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance, simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode compared with other modes on high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The amplified zonal patterns of the Southern Annular Mode in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, 3 of the 5 sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

Dominance (genetics)

Sea ice concentration

10.5194/tc-2016-200

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Citations (2)

Reply on RC1

Serena Schroeter

Across the long-term (~43 year) satellite record, Antarctic sea ice extent shows a small overall circumpolar increase, resulting from opposing regional sea ice concentration anomalies. Running short-term samples of the same sea ice concentration data, however, show that the long-term trend pattern is skewed towards the earliest years of the satellite record. Compensating regional anomalies diminish over time, and in the most recent decade, these tend towards spatial homogeneity instead. Running 30-year trends show the regional pattern of sea ice behaviour reversing over time; while in some regions, trend patterns abruptly shift in line with the record anomalous sea ice behaviour of recent years, in other regions a steady change predates these record anomalies. The shifting regression patterns are co-located with enhanced north-south flow due to an increasingly wave-3-like structure of the Southern Annular Mode. Sea surface temperature anomalies also shift from a circumpolar cooling to a regional pattern that resembles the increasingly asymmetric structure of the Southern Annular Mode, with warming in regions of previously increasing sea ice such as the Ross Sea.

Circumpolar star

Temperature record

10.5194/tc-2022-151-ac1

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Citations (0)

Reply on RC2

Serena Schroeter

Circumpolar star

Temperature record

10.5194/tc-2022-151-ac2

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Sea Ice: Overview

Elsevier eBooks (2018)

W. F. Weeks Serena Schroeter

Arctic geoengineering

10.1016/b978-0-12-409548-9.10819-x

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Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Change in CMIP5 Models

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans (2018)

Serena Schroeter Will Hobbs Nathaniel L. Bindoff RA Massom Richard J. Matear

Abstract Antarctic sea ice trends have to date been linked to surface winds, through sea ice motion and atmospheric thermal advection. This paper analyzes sea ice volume in 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model configurations under pre‐industrial and historical climate forcings, to compare the relative importance of ice motion and thermodynamic processes. We find that the models' responses to historical forcings is dependent on their sea ice motion formulation; models with low‐magnitude sea ice motion tend to have historical trends that are dominated by thermodynamic processes, while sea ice models with higher‐magnitude motion have more spatially variable relative contributions from dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Trends at the sea ice edge during the season of sea ice advance are generally dominated by dynamic processes, whereas during retreat thermodynamic trends dominate. The models show more disagreement in the sea ice interior. This analysis highlights the different estimates and patterns of sea ice volume among global climate models and offers insight into the drivers of sea ice volume change as well as the subsequent implications for simulated atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean interactions.

10.1029/2018jc014177

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Citations (13)

Comment on tc-2022-151

Serena Schroeter T. Okane Paul A. Sandery

Abstract. Across the long-term (â¼43-year) satellite record, Antarctic sea ice extent shows a small overall circumpolar increase, resulting from opposing regional sea ice concentration anomalies. Running short-term samples of the same sea ice concentration data, however, show that the long-term trend pattern is dominated by the earliest years of the satellite record. Compensating regional anomalies diminish over time, and in the most recent decade, these tend towards spatial homogeneity instead. Running 30-year trends show the regional pattern of sea ice behaviour reversing over time; while in some regions, trend patterns abruptly shift in line with the record anomalous sea ice behaviour of recent years, in other regions a steady change predates these record anomalies. The shifting trend patterns in many regions are co-located with enhanced northâsouth flow due to an increasingly wave-3-like structure of the Southern Annular Mode. Sea surface temperature anomalies also shift from a circumpolar cooling to a regional pattern that resembles the increasingly asymmetric structure of the Southern Annular Mode, with warming in regions of previously increasing sea ice such as the Ross Sea.

Circumpolar star

Temperature record

10.5194/tc-2022-151-rc2

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Citations (0)

Supplementary material to "Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode"

Serena Schroeter T. Okane Paul A. Sandery

each 15-year sample from the 1979-2021 mean.

Mode (computer interface)

10.5194/tc-2022-151-supplement

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Examining Antarctic sea ice bias sensitivity in the multi-variate parameter space using a global coupled climate modelling system

Ocean Modelling (2023)

Serena Schroeter Paul A. Sandery

Coupled global numerical climate models (GCMs) typically underestimate mean Antarctic sea ice area and extent, particularly during the austral summer months, contributing to uncertainties in climate prediction. This study examines the climatological behaviour of Antarctic sea ice in a coupled GCM in the multivariate sea ice model parameter space. Individual parameters dominate the ice response in different seasons and regions, with a compensatory effect in some parameter combinations and an amplified effect in others; however, certain parameter combinations are found to improve aspects of Antarctic sea ice climatology well beyond the limitations of a univariate approach. For example, the disparity between observed and simulated summer sea ice extent and area is halved, and the tendency towards very low-concentration ice (<15%) reduced in favour of a more compact summer and autumn ice pack. Regardless, clear limitations in the extent to which a coupled GCM can be calibrated with sea-ice model parameters also emerge. Relatively unconsolidated winter ice cover persists and, in some experiments, becomes looser still, exacerbating the already overestimated maximum sea ice extent. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of sea ice and the exaggerated asymmetry of the seasonal cycle, with the onset of ice advance too slow and maximum sea ice reached too late, sees negligible improvements. We note that, even with the large gains under certain parameter combinations, bias and other deficiencies still remain. Using coupled data assimilation to optimise parameters in both sea-ice and ocean models will likely assist in contributing to further model improvements.

Sea ice concentration

10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102313

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