Joseph J. Cione

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

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Jun A. Zhang

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

Evan A. Kalina

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Frank D. Marks

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

Altuğ Aksoy

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

Eric W. Uhlhorn

Verisk Analytics (United States)

Sim D. Aberson

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Robert F. Rogers

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

John Kaplan

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Joshua B. Wadler

Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University

Jason Dunion

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

Cooperative Institutions

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories

University of Miami

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

International Space Station

European Space Agency

Oceanography Society

University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado State University

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

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Observations of front-to-back thermodynamic asymmetries in hurricanes

27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (2006)

Joseph J. Cione

Cold front

Source

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Citations (0)

The Ice Water Paths of Small and Large Ice Species in Hurricanes Arthur (2014) and Irene (2011)

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (2017)

Evan A. Kalina Sergey Y. Matrosov Joseph J. Cione Frank D. Marks Jothiram Vivekanandan

Abstract Dual-polarization scanning radar measurements, air temperature soundings, and a polarimetric radar-based particle identification scheme are used to generate maps and probability density functions (PDFs) of the ice water path (IWP) in Hurricanes Arthur (2014) and Irene (2011) at landfall. The IWP is separated into the contribution from small ice (i.e., ice crystals), termed small-particle IWP, and large ice (i.e., graupel and snow), termed large-particle IWP. Vertically profiling radar data from Hurricane Arthur suggest that the small ice particles detected by the scanning radar have fall velocities mostly greater than 0.25 m s −1 and that the particle identification scheme is capable of distinguishing between small and large ice particles in a mean sense. The IWP maps and PDFs reveal that the total and large-particle IWPs range up to 10 kg m −2 , with the largest values confined to intense convective precipitation within the rainbands and eyewall. Small-particle IWP remains mostly <4 kg m −2 , with the largest small-particle IWP values collocated with maxima in the total IWP. PDFs of the small-to-total IWP ratio have shapes that depend on the precipitation type (i.e., intense convective, stratiform, or weak-echo precipitation). The IWP ratio distribution is narrowest (broadest) in intense convective (weak echo) precipitation and peaks at a ratio of about 0.1 (0.3).

Graupel

Particle (ecology)

10.1175/jamc-d-16-0300.1

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Citations (19)

The Effect of Gulf Stream-induced Baroclinicity on U.S. East Coast Winter Cyclones

Monthly Weather Review (1993)

Joseph J. Cione Sethu Raman Leonard J. Pietrafesa

Midlatitude cyclones develop off the Carolinas during winters and move north producing gale-force winds, ice, and heavy snow. It is believed that boundary-layer and air-sea interaction processes are very important during the development stages of these East Coast storms. The marine boundary layer (MBL) off the mid- Atlantic coastline is highly baroclinic due to the proximity of the Gulf Stream just offshore. Typical horizontal distances between the Wilmington coastline and the western edge of the Gulf Stream vary between 90 and 250 km annually, and this distance can deviate by over 30 km within a single week. While similar weekly Gulf Stream position standard deviations also exist at Cape Hatteras, the average annual distance to the Gulf Stream frontal zone is much smaller off Cape Hatteras, normally ranging between 30 and 100 km. This research investigates the low-level baroclinic conditions present prior to observed storm events. The examination of nine years of data on the Gulf Stream position and East Coast winter storms seems to indicate that the degree of low-level baroclinicity and modification existing prior to a cyclonic event may significantly affect the rate of cyclonic deepening off the mid-Atlantic coastline. Statistical analyses linking the observed surface-pressure decrease with both the Gulf Stream frontal location and the prestorm coastal baroclinic conditions are presented. These results quantitatively indicate that Gulf Stream-induced wintertime baroclinicity may significantly affect the regional intensification of East Coast winter cyclones.

Gulf Stream

Extratropical cyclone

Winter storm

Boundary current

10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0421:teogsi>2.0.co;2

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Citations (58)

The Impact of Gulf Stream-Induced Diabatic Forcing on Coastal Mid-Atlantic Surface Cyclogenesis

PhDT (1996)

Joseph J. Cione

Cyclogenesis

Forcing (mathematics)

Diabatic

Tropical cyclogenesis

Gulf Stream

Extratropical cyclone

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Tropical Cyclone Data Assimilation with Coyote Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations, Very Frequent Cycling, and a New Online Quality Control Technique

Monthly Weather Review (2022)

Altuğ Aksoy Joseph J. Cione Brittany A. Dahl Paul D. Reasor

Abstract A unique dataset obtained from the Coyote small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS) in the inner-core boundary layer of Hurricane Maria (2017) is assimilated using NOAA’s Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) for data assimilation and Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for model advances. The case of study is 1800 UTC 23 September 2017 when Maria was a category-3 hurricane. In addition to the Coyote observations, measurements collected by the NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft were also included. To support the assimilation of this unique dataset, a new online quality control (QC) technique in HEDAS scales the observation–background difference by the total uncertainty during data assimilation and uses the interquartile range outlier method to identify outlier observations. Experimental setup includes various very frequent cycling scenarios for a control that does not assimilate Coyote observations, assimilation of Coyote observations in addition to the control observations, and the application of online QC. Findings suggest progressively improved analyses with more-frequent cycling, Coyote assimilation, and application of online QC. This applies to verification statistics computed at the locations of both Coyote and non-Coyote observations. In terms of the storm structure, only experiments that assimilated the Coyote observations were able to reproduce the double-eyewall structure that was observed at the time of the analysis, which is more consistent with the intensity of the storm according to the observations that were collected. Limitations of the study and future plans are also discussed. Significance Statement Findings from this study illustrate the significant impact difficult-to-obtain, near-surface observations can have on improving the accuracy of tropical cyclone structure and intensity. Adding these novel measurements in a way that also includes advanced cycling and quality control techniques in data assimilation has the potential to improve public forecasts that are reliant upon detailed depictions of storm strength and boundary layer structure prior to landfall. The results speak to the importance of parallel and consistent advancements in modeling, data assimilation, and observational capabilities to improve the depiction of the tropical cyclone inner-core structure in numerical models.

Eye

10.1175/mwr-d-21-0124.1

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Citations (5)

Boundary Layer Recovery and Precipitation Symmetrization Preceding Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Shear

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (2021)

Xiaomin Chen Jian‐Feng Gu Jun A. Zhang Frank D. Marks Robert F. Rogers

Abstract This study investigates the precipitation symmetrization preceding rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) experiencing vertical wind shear by analyzing numerical simulations of Typhoon Mujigae (2015) with warm (CTL) and relatively cool (S1) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A novel finding is that precipitation symmetrization is maintained by the continuous development of deep convection along the inward flank of a convective precipitation shield (CPS), especially in the downwind part. Beneath the CPS, downdrafts flush the boundary layer with low-entropy parcels. These low-entropy parcels do not necessarily weaken the TCs; instead, they are “recycled” in the TC circulation, gradually recovered by positive enthalpy fluxes, and develop into convection during their propagation toward a downshear convergence zone. Along-trajectory vertical momentum budget analyses reveal the predominant role of buoyancy acceleration in the convective development in both experiments. The boundary layer recovery is more efficient for warmer SST, and the stronger buoyancy acceleration accounts for the higher probability of these parcels developing into deep convection in the downwind part of the CPS, which helps maintain the precipitation symmetrization in CTL. In contrast, less efficient boundary layer recovery and less upshear deep convection hinder the precipitation symmetrization in S1. These findings highlight the key role of boundary layer recovery in regulating the precipitation symmetrization and upshear deep convection, which further accounts for an earlier RI onset timing of the CTL TC. The inward-rebuilding pathway also illuminates why deep convection is preferentially located inside the radius of maximum wind of sheared TCs undergoing RI.

Symmetrization

10.1175/jas-d-20-0252.1

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Citations (20)

The North Equatorial Current and rapid intensification of super typhoons

Nature Communications (2024)

Sok Kuh Kang Sung‐Hun Kim I.‐I. Lin Young‐Hyang Park Yumi Choi

Super Typhoon Mangkhut, which traversed the North Equatorial Current (NEC; 8-17 °N) in the western North Pacific in 2018, was the most intense Category-5 tropical cyclone (TC) with the longest duration in history-3.5 days. Here we show that the combination of two factors-high ocean heat content (OHC) and increased stratification - makes the NEC region the most favored area for a rapid intensification (RI) of super typhoons, instead of the Eddy Rich Zone (17-25 °N), which was considered the most relevant for RI occurrence. The high OHC results from a northward deepening thermocline in geostrophic balance with the westward-flowing NEC. The stratification is derived from precipitation associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the summer peak typhoon season. These factors, which are increasingly significant over the past four decades, impede the TC-induced sea surface cooling, thus enhancing RI of TCs and simultaneously maintaining super typhoons over the NEC region.

Typhoon

Stratification (seeds)

10.1038/s41467-024-45685-2

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Citations (3)

Recent advancements in aircraft and in situ observations of tropical cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review (2023)

Heather M. Holbach Olivier Bousquet Lisa Bucci Paul Chang Joseph J. Cione

Observations of tropical cyclones (TC) from aircraft and in situ platforms provide critical and unique information for analyzing and forecasting TC intensity, structure, track, and their associated hazards. This report, prepared for the tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10), discusses the data collected around the world in TCs over the past four years since the IWTC-9, improvements to observing techniques, new instruments designed to achieve sustained and targeted atmospheric and oceanic observations, and select research results related to these observations. In the Atlantic and Eastern and Central Pacific basins, changes to operational aircraft reconnaissance are discussed along with several of the research field campaigns that have taken place recently. The changes in the use and impact of these aircraft observations in numerical weather prediction models are also provided along with updates on some of the experimental aircraft instrumentation. Highlights from three field campaigns in the Western Pacific basin are also discussed. Examples of in-situ data collected within recent TCs such as Hurricane Ian (2022), also demonstrate that new, emerging technologies and observation strategies reviewed in this report, definitely have the potential to further improve ocean-atmosphere coupled intensity forecasts.

Atlantic hurricane

Pacific basin

Dropsonde

Instrumentation

10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.001

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Citations (17)

The Relative Roles of the Ocean and Atmosphere as Revealed by Buoy Air–Sea Observations in Hurricanes

Monthly Weather Review (2014)

Joseph J. Cione

Abstract Results from this multihurricane study suggest that the criticality of the oft-cited 26°C hurricane threshold linked to hurricane maintenance may be more closely associated with atmospheric thermodynamic conditions within the inner core than previously believed. In all cases, a positive sea–air contrast was observed within the storm inner core (i.e., surface ocean temperature greater than surface air temperature), despite the fact that 6% of the hurricanes exhibited sea surface temperatures (SSTs) less than the 26°C. For the storms sampled in this study, inner-core surface dewpoint temperatures never exceeded 26.5°C. This finding may provide an alternate explanation as to the criticality of the 26°C threshold since SSTs above 26°C would, in almost all instances, be associated with a positive enthalpy flux condition. Analyses from this study also illustrate that high wind SSTs fluctuate as a function of storm latitude, while inner-core near-surface dewpoint temperatures are much less sensitive to this parameter. As a result, and assuming all other factors to be equal, low-latitude hurricanes would, on average, be expected to experience surface moisture fluxes ~1/3 greater than storms located farther to the north. For systems sampled within the deep tropics, inner-core SST was found to fluctuate much less than surface dewpoint temperature, suggesting that the atmosphere, not the ocean, is more likely to influence the key thermodynamic parameter controlling surface moisture flux for this subset of hurricanes.

Buoy

Dew point

10.1175/mwr-d-13-00380.1

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Citations (36)

Axisymmetric Initialization of the Atmosphere and Ocean for Idealized Coupled Hurricane Simulations

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2017)

Altuğ Aksoy Jun A. Zhang Bradley W. Klotz Eric W. Uhlhorn Joseph J. Cione

Abstract A new vortex‐scale initialization scheme is presented for idealized coupled hurricane simulations. The atmospheric scheme involves construction of azimuthally averaged kinematic and thermodynamic initial fields based on historical composite data sets from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft. For ocean initialization, a statistical scheme is proposed to construct regression models among atmospheric and ocean fields in the hurricane inner core. For the numerical model, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model coupled with a one‐dimensional, diffusive ocean model is used with modifications to initialize with the observation‐based vortex and to ensure that the storm environment remains approximately steady. The primary goal in these simulations is to obtain steady state hurricanes of category‐1 intensity with characteristics typically observed during the hurricane season of the western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea regions. It is demonstrated that this is successfully achieved in the simulations. In an azimuthally averaged sense, regression models are found to capture about 70% of total variance for sea‐surface temperature cooling and up to 55% of total variance for mixed‐layer depth perturbation in the hurricane inner core. Furthermore, within the inner core of a hurricane vortex, it is found that storm speed contributes most to upper ocean perturbations, whereas characteristics of the atmospheric vortex contribute very little. The importance of storm speed in controlling upper ocean perturbations is strongest near the storm center, diminishing gradually toward no measurable impact beyond the immediate inner core.

Eye

Initialization

Storm Surge

Atmospheric models

Atlantic hurricane

10.1002/2017ms000977

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Citations (2)