Abstract Ocean acidification has become one of the most intensively studied climate change topics and it is expected to have both direct and indirect impacts on species, ecosystems, and economies. Experiments have been performed on different taxa, life stages, and at different pH levels. Despite this wealth of information, several key challenges remain, including (1) uncertainty about how to incorporate current pH ranges and variability experienced by organisms into experiments, and (2) how to bring this information together to support analysis and assessments at the broader ecosystem level. Sophisticated modelling tools are needed to ‘scale-up’ from experimental results to regional-scale insights. This paper highlights the challenges of combining information to determine how commercially exploited species may be affected under future pH levels, and how modelling and experimental results might be better aligned, using northwest Europe and the waters around the British Isles as an example. We argue that in most cases the current evidence does not offer sufficient information into impacts at projected pH levels, and that future experiments should be designed to consider the pH levels actually experienced by organisms, as well as variability in pH. These types of study are key in safeguarding commercially exploited shellfish stocks.
Key messages: 1.1 The process of ocean acidification is now relatively well-documented at the global scale as a long-term trend in the open ocean. However, short-term and spatial variability can be high. 1.2 New datasets made available since Charting Progress 2 make it possible to greatly improve the characterisation of CO2 and ocean acidification in UK waters. 3.1 Recent UK cruise data contribute to large gaps in national and global datasets. 3.2 The new UK measurements confirm that pH is highly variable, therefore it is important to measure consistently to determine any long term trends. 3.3 Over the past 30 years, North Sea pH has decreased at 0.0035±0.0014 pH units per year. 3.4 Upper ocean pH values are highest in spring, lowest in autumn. These changes reflect the seasonal cycles in photosynthesis, respiration (decomposition) and water mixing. 3.5 Carbonate saturation states are minimal in the winter, and lower in 7 more northerly, colder waters. This temperature-dependence could have implications for future warming of the seas. 3.6 Over the annual cycle, North-west European seas are net sinks of CO2. However, during late summer to autumn months, some coastal waters may be significant sources. 3.7 In seasonally-stratified waters, sea-floor organisms naturally experience lower pH and saturation states; they may therefore be more vulnerable to threshold changes. 3.8 Large pH changes (0.5 - 1.0 units) can occur in the top 1 cm of sediment; however, such effects are not well-documented. 3.9 A coupled forecast model estimates the decrease in pH trend within the North Sea to be -0.0036±0.00034 pH units per year, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). 3.10 Seasonal estimates from the forecast model demonstrate areas of the North Sea that are particularly vulnerable to aragonite undersaturation.
Temperature – sea surface temperature has risen by more than 1 °C over the last 100 years. Future temperature rises will have impacts on hurricanes, rainfall, coral reefs and wider marine ecosystems. Hurricanes - The IPCC (IPCC AR5 WG1) found strong evidence for an increase in the frequency and intensity of the strongest tropical hurricanes since the 1970s in the North Atlantic. El Nino- Understanding the influence of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on Caribbean’s marine environment and timescales of variability is key to understanding how climate has been changing; projecting these relationships and ENSO itself into the future becomes vital to understand the fingerprint of global warming in the region. Precipitation – there are a wide range of projections for future precipitation change in the area with some models finding increases in the coming century while most suggest a drier future for the region. Ocean surface aragonite saturation state (Ωarg) has declined by around 3% in the Caribbean region relative to pre-industrial levels. Climate variability – the Caribbean region needs a smaller increase in temperature for its conditions to become distinct (climate emergence) from the envelope of climate variability over the last hundred years, compared with the rest of the world.
Abstract As a discipline, marine historical ecology (MHE) has contributed significantly to our understanding of the past state of the marine environment when levels of human impact were often very different from those today. What is less widely known is that insights from MHE have made headway into being applied within the context of present-day and long-term management and policy. This study draws attention to the applied value of MHE. We demonstrate that a broad knowledge base exists with potential for management application and advice, including the development of baselines and reference levels. Using a number of case studies from around the world, we showcase the value of historical ecology in understanding change and emphasize how it either has already informed management or has the potential to do so soon. We discuss these case studies in a context of the science–policy interface around six themes that are frequently targeted by current marine and maritime policies: climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem structure, habitat integrity, food security, and human governance. We encourage science–policy bodies to actively engage with contributions from MHE, as well-informed policy decisions need to be framed within the context of historical reference points and past resource or ecosystem changes.
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