Abstract. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is a dual threat to the marine environment: from one side it drives climate change leading to changes in water temperature, circulation patterns and stratification intensity; on the other side it causes a decrease in pH (Ocean Acidification or OA) due to the increase in dissolved CO2. Assessing the combined impact of climate change and OA on marine ecosystems is a challenging task: the response of the ecosystem to a single driver is highly variable and still uncertain, as well as the interaction between these that could be either synergistic or antagonistic. In this work we use the coupled oceanographic-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM driven by climate forcing to study the interaction between climate change and OA. We focus in particular on primary production and nitrogen speciation. The model has been run in three different configurations in order to separate the impacts of ocean acidification from those due to climate change. The model shows significant interaction among the drivers and high variability in the spatial response of the ecosystem. Impacts of climate change and of OA on primary production have similar magnitude, compensating in some area and exacerbating in others. On the contrary, the direct impact of OA on nitrification is much lower than the one imposed by climate change.
<p>With the ever-growing interest from the general public towards understanding climate science, it is becoming increasingly important that we present this information in ways accessible to non-experts. In this pilot study, we use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces and use them to explain the process of modelling the earth system and to engage with the wider community.&#160;</p><p>Scientific data is almost always represented graphically either in figures or in videos. By adding audio to the visualisation of model data, the combination of music and imagery provides additional contextual clues to aid in the interpretation. Furthermore, the audiolisation of model data can be employed to generate interesting and captivating music, which can not&#160; only reach a wider audience, but also hold the attention of the listeners for extended periods of time.</p><p>Each of the six pieces presented in this work was themed around either a scientific principle or a practical aspect of earth system modelling. These pieces demonstrate the concepts of a spin up, a pre-industrial control run, multiple historical experiments, and the use of several future climate scenarios to a wider audience. They also show the ocean acidification over the historical period, the changes in circulation, the natural variability of the pre-industrial simulations, and the expected rise in sea surface temperature over the 20th century.&#160;</p><p>Each of these pieces were arranged using different musical progression, style and tempo. All six pieces were performed by the digital piano synthesizer, TiMidity++, and were published on the lead author's YouTube channel. The videos all show the progression of the data in time with the music and a brief description of the methodology is posted alongside the video.&#160;</p><p>To disseminate these works, links to each piece were published on the lead author's personal and professional social media accounts. The reach of these works was also analysed using YouTube's channel monitoring toolkit for content creators, YouTube studio.</p>
Abstract. Scientific data are almost always represented graphically in figures or in videos. With the ever-growing interest from the general public in understanding climate sciences, it is becoming increasingly important that scientists present this information in ways that are both accessible and engaging to non-experts. In this pilot study, we use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces. Each of these pieces presents a unique aspect of the ocean component of the UKESM1, either in terms of a scientific principle or a practical aspect of modelling. In addition, each piece is arranged using a different musical progression, style and tempo. These pieces were created in the Musical Instrument Digital Interface (MIDI) format and then performed by a digital piano synthesiser. An associated video showing the time development of the data in time with the music was also created. The music and video were published on the lead author's YouTube channel. A brief description of the methodology was also posted alongside the video. We also discuss the limitations of this pilot study and describe several approaches to extend and expand upon this work.
Abstract This is the first projection of marine circulation and biogeochemistry for the Ascension Island Marine Protected Area (AIMPA). Marine Protected Areas are a key management tool used to safeguard biodiversity, but their efficacy is increasingly threatened by climate change. To assess an MPA's vulnerability to climate change and predict biological responses, we must first project how the local marine environment will change. We present the projections of an ensemble from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparision Project. Relative to the recent past (2000–2010), the multi‐model means of the mid‐century (2040–2050) project that the AIMPA will become warmer (+0.9 to +1.2°C), more saline (+0.01 to +0.10), with a shallower mixed layer depth (−1.3 to −0.8 m), a weaker Atlantic Equatorial Undercurrent (AEU) (−1.5 to −0.4 Sv), more acidic (−0.10 to −0.07), with lower surface nutrient concentrations (−0.023 to −0.0141 mmol N m −3 and −0.013 to −0.009 mmol P m −3 ), less chlorophyll (−6 to −3 µg m −3 ) and less primary production (−0.31 to −0.20 mol m −2 yr −1 ). These changes are often more extreme in the scenarios with higher greenhouse gases emissions and more significant climate change. Using the multi‐model mean for two scenarios in the years 2090–2100, we assessed how five key ecosystem services in both the shallow subtidal and the pelagic zone were likely to be impacted by climate change. Both low and high emission scenarios project significant changes to the AIMPA, and it is likely that the provision of several ecosystem services will be negatively impacted.
Abstract. Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean carbonate pump (~50%) and their formation can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (air-sea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998–2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS). We calculate the annual mean surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000 ± 119 000 km2 yr−1, which results in a net CaCO3 production of 0.62 ± 0.15 Tg CaCO3 carbon per year. However, this surface coverage and net production can fluctuate by −54/+81% about these mean values and are strongly correlated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillation index (r = 0.75, p < 0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO2 and thus decrease the localised sink of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly CO2 sink can reach 12%. The maximum reduction of the monthly CO2 sink in the time series is 32%. This work suggests that the high variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO2 should be considered within modelling studies of the North Atlantic if we are to fully understand the variability of its air-to-sea CO2 flux.
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