Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to minimize the impact of climate change by tackling hard-to-abate sectors and historical emissions. Direct air capture and storage (DACS) is an important CDR technology, but it remains unclear when and how DACS can be economically viable. Here, we use a bottom-up engineering-economic model together with top-down technological learning projections to calculate plant-level cost trajectories for four DACS technologies. Our analysis demonstrates that the costs of these technologies can plateau by 2050 at around $100-600 t-CO2-1 mainly via capital cost reduction through aggressive deployment, but still exceed the optimistic targets defined by countries such as the US (i.e., $100 t-CO2-1). A further analysis of existing policy mechanisms indicates that strong, project-catered policy support will be required to create market opportunities, accelerate DACS scale-up and lower the costs further. Our work suggests that strategic DACS deployment and operation must be coupled with strong policies to minimise the cost of DACS and maximise the opportunity to make a planet-scale climate impact.
The negative emissions technology, artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA), aims to store atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the ocean by increasing total alkalinity (TA). Calcium carbonate saturation state (ΩCaCO3) and pH would also increase meaning that AOA could alleviate sensitive regions and ecosystems from ocean acidification. However, AOA could raise pH and ΩCaCO3 well above modern-day levels, and very little is known about the environmental and biological impact of this. After treating a red calcifying algae (Corallina spp.) to elevated TA seawater, carbonate production increased by 60% over a control. This has implication for carbon cycling in the past, but also constrains the environmental impact and efficiency of AOA. Carbonate production could reduce the efficiency of CO2 removal. Increasing TA, however, did not significantly influence Corallina spp. primary productivity, respiration, or photophysiology. These results show that AOA may not be intrinsically detrimental for Corallina spp. and that AOA has the potential to lessen the impacts of ocean acidification. However, the experiment tested a single species within a controlled environment to constrain a specific unknown, the rate change of calcification, and additional work is required to understand the impact of AOA on other organisms, whole ecosystems, and the global carbon cycle.
ABSTRACT Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods are increasingly used for policy decision‐making in the context of identifying and scaling up sustainable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) interventions. This article critically reviews CDR LCA case‐studies through three key lenses relevant to policy decision‐making on sustainable CDR scale‐up, namely comparability across CDR assessments, assessment of the climatic merit of a CDR intervention, and consideration of wider CDR co‐benefits and impacts. Our results show that while providing valuable life cycle understanding, current practices utilize diverse methods, usually attributional in nature, which are CDR and time‐specific. As a result, they do not allow comprehensive cross‐comparison between CDRs, nor reveal the potential consequences of scaling up CDRs in the future. We suggest CDR LCA design requires clearer definitions of the study scope and goal, the use of more consistent functional units, greater comprehensiveness in system boundaries, and explicit baseline definitions. This would allow for robust assessments, facilitating comparison with other CDR methods, and better evidencing net climate benefits. The inventory should collect time‐dependent data on the full CDR life cycle and baseline, and report background assumptions. The impact assessment phase should evidence the climatic merits, co‐benefits, and trade‐offs potentially caused by the expanding CDR. Finally, to ensure a sustainable scale‐up of CDR, consequential analyses should be performed, and interpretation involves the comparison of all selected metrics and the permanence of carbon storage against a baseline scenario.
Abstract To achieve the Paris climate target, deep emissions reductions have to be complemented with carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, a portfolio of CDR options is necessary to reduce risks and potential negative side effects. Despite a large theoretical potential, ocean-based CDR such as ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) has been omitted in climate change mitigation scenarios so far. In this study, we provide a techno-economic assessment of large-scale OAE using hydrated lime (‘ocean liming’). We address key uncertainties that determine the overall cost of ocean liming (OL) such as the CO2 uptake efficiency per unit of material, distribution strategies avoiding carbonate precipitation which would compromise efficiency, and technology availability (e.g., solar calciners). We find that at economic costs of 130–295 $/tCO2 net-removed, ocean liming could be a competitive CDR option which could make a significant contribution towards the Paris climate target. As the techno-economic assessment identified no showstoppers, we argue for more research on ecosystem impacts, governance, monitoring, reporting, and verification, and technology development and assessment to determine whether ocean liming and other OAE should be considered as part of a broader CDR portfolio.
Abstract To avoid dangerous climate change, new technologies must remove billions of tonnes of CO 2 from the atmosphere every year by mid-century. Here we detail a land-based enhanced weathering cycle utilizing magnesite (MgCO 3 ) feedstock to repeatedly capture CO 2 from the atmosphere. In this process, MgCO 3 is calcined, producing caustic magnesia (MgO) and high-purity CO 2 . This MgO is spread over land to carbonate for a year by reacting with atmospheric CO 2 . The carbonate minerals are then recollected and re-calcined. The reproduced MgO is spread over land to carbonate again. We show this process could cost approximately $46–159 tCO 2 −1 net removed from the atmosphere, considering grid and solar electricity without post-processing costs. This technology may achieve lower costs than projections for more extensively engineered Direct Air Capture methods. It has the scalable potential to remove at least 2–3 GtCO 2 year −1 , and may make a meaningful contribution to mitigating climate change.
Abstract Enhanced weathering (EW) with agriculture uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 1,2 . If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 2–4 . Here we show, with a detailed US state-specific carbon cycle analysis constrained by resource provision, that EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.16–0.30 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2050, rising to 0.25–0.49 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2070. Geochemical assessment of rivers and oceans suggests effective transport of dissolved products from EW from soils, offering CDR on intergenerational timescales. Our analysis further indicates that EW may temporarily help lower ground-level ozone and concentrations of secondary aerosols in agricultural regions. Geospatially mapped CDR costs show heterogeneity across the USA, reflecting a combination of cropland distance from basalt source regions, timing of EW deployment and evolving CDR rates. CDR costs are highest in the first two decades before declining to about US$100–150 tCO 2 −1 by 2050, including for states that contribute most to total national CDR. Although EW cannot be a substitute for emission reductions, our assessment strengthens the case for EW as an overlooked practical innovation for helping the USA meet net-zero 2050 goals 5,6 . Public awareness of EW and equity impacts of EW deployment across the USA require further exploration 7,8 and we note that mobilizing an EW industry at the necessary scale could take decades.
Abstract. According to modelling studies, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is one of the proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches with large potential, with the beneficial side effect of counteracting ocean acidification. The real-world application of OAE, however, remains unclear as most basic assumptions are untested. Before large-scale deployment can be considered, safe and sustainable procedures for the addition of alkalinity to seawater must be identified and governance established. One of the concerns is the stability of alkalinity when added to seawater. The surface ocean is already supersaturated with respect to calcite and aragonite, and an increase in total alkalinity (TA) together with a corresponding shift in carbonate chemistry towards higher carbonate ion concentrations would result in a further increase in supersaturation, and potentially to solid carbonate precipitation. Precipitation of carbonate minerals consumes alkalinity and increases dissolved CO2 in seawater, thereby reducing the efficiency of OAE for CO2 removal. In order to address the application of alkaline solution as well as fine particulate alkaline solids, a set of six experiments was performed using natural seawater with alkalinity of around 2400 µmol kgsw−1. The application of CO2-equilibrated alkaline solution bears the lowest risk of losing alkalinity due to carbonate phase formation if added total alkalinity (ΔTA) is less than 2400 µmol kgsw−1. The addition of reactive alkaline solids can cause a net loss of alkalinity if added ΔTA > 600 µmol kgsw−1 (e.g. for Mg(OH)2). Commercially available (ultrafine) Ca(OH)2 causes, in general, a net loss in TA for the tested amounts of TA addition, which has consequences for suggested use of slurries with alkaline solids supplied from ships. The rapid application of excessive amounts of Ca(OH)2, exceeding a threshold for alkalinity loss, resulted in a massive increase in TA (> 20 000 µmol kgsw−1) at the cost of lower efficiency and resultant high pH values > 9.5. Analysis of precipitates indicates formation of aragonite. However, unstable carbonate phases formed can partially redissolve, indicating that net loss of a fraction of alkalinity may not be permanent, which has important implications for real-world OAE application. Our results indicate that using an alkaline solution instead of reactive alkaline particles can avoid carbonate formation, unless alkalinity addition via solutions shifts the system beyond critical supersaturation levels. To avoid the loss of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from seawater, the application of reactor techniques can be considered. These techniques produce an equilibrated solution from alkaline solids and CO2 prior to application. Differing behaviours of tested materials suggest that standardized engineered materials for OAE need to be developed to achieve safe and sustainable OAE with solids, if reactors technologies should be avoided.
Abstract. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is an emerging strategy that aims to mitigate climate change by increasing the alkalinity of seawater. This approach involves increasing the alkalinity of the ocean to enhance its capacity to absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. This chapter presents an overview of the technical aspects associated with the full range of OAE methods being pursued and discusses implications for undertaking research on these approaches. Various methods have been developed to implement OAE, including: the direct injection of alkaline liquid into the surface ocean, dispersal of alkaline particles from ships, platforms or pipes, the addition of minerals to coastal environments, or the electrochemical removal of acid from seawater. Each method has its advantages and challenges, such as scalability, cost-effectiveness, and potential environmental impacts. The choice of technique may depend on factors such as regional oceanographic conditions, alkalinity source availability, and engineering feasibility. This chapter considers electrochemical methods, the accelerated weathering of limestone, ocean liming, the creation of hydrated carbonates, and the addition of minerals to coastal environments. In each case, the technical aspects of the technologies are considered and implications for best-practice research are drawn. The environmental and social impacts of OAE will likely depend on the specific technology and the local context in which it is deployed. Therefore, it is essential that the technical feasibility of OAE is undertaken in parallel with, and informed by, wider impact assessments. While OAE shows promise as a potential climate change mitigation strategy, it is essential to acknowledge its limitations and uncertainties. Further research and development are needed to understand the long-term effects, optimize techniques, and address potential unintended consequences. OAE should be viewed as complementary to extensive emission reductions, and its feasibility may be improved if it is operated using energy and supply chains with minimal CO2 emissions.
Abstract. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is an emerging strategy that aims to mitigate climate change by increasing the alkalinity of seawater. This approach involves increasing the alkalinity of the ocean to enhance its capacity to absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. This chapter presents an overview of the technical aspects associated with the full range of OAE methods being pursued and discusses implications for undertaking research on these approaches. Various methods have been developed to implement OAE, including: the direct injection of alkaline liquid into the surface ocean, dispersal of alkaline particles from ships, platforms or pipes, the addition of minerals to coastal environments, or the electrochemical removal of acid from seawater. Each method has its advantages and challenges, such as scalability, cost-effectiveness, and potential environmental impacts. The choice of technique may depend on factors such as regional oceanographic conditions, alkalinity source availability, and engineering feasibility. This chapter considers electrochemical methods, the accelerated weathering of limestone, ocean liming, the creation of hydrated carbonates, and the addition of minerals to coastal environments. In each case, the technical aspects of the technologies are considered and implications for best-practice research are drawn. The environmental and social impacts of OAE will likely depend on the specific technology and the local context in which it is deployed. Therefore, it is essential that the technical feasibility of OAE is undertaken in parallel with, and informed by, wider impact assessments. While OAE shows promise as a potential climate change mitigation strategy, it is essential to acknowledge its limitations and uncertainties. Further research and development are needed to understand the long-term effects, optimize techniques, and address potential unintended consequences. OAE should be viewed as complementary to extensive emission reductions, and its feasibility may be improved if it is operated using energy and supply chains with minimal CO2 emissions.
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