Sensitivity experiments with a general circulation model demonstrate the role of ice sheet size on the local, regional, and global climate. Model experiments isolate the effects of albedo, height, and area of the ice sheets and show how the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model 1 responds to changes in the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets. A flat ice sheet with full glacial areal extent but no elevation is used to study albedo effects. A full ice sheet with full glacial areal extent and elevation is used to represent height effects. An ice sheet with half the glacial area of the others but the full glacial elevation is used to represent area effects. All of the sensitivity experiments have (1) interactive sea surface temperatures calculated by a slab ocean and (2) modern boundary conditions except for the ice sheets. The experiments show that both the full and flat ice sheets lower the global mean surface temperatures (GMT) by 2.5°C and that the GMT is dependent upon the area, rather than the height, of the ice sheets. High ice sheets maintain colder temperatures than lower ice sheets over the ice sheets themselves, but compensating warmer temperatures occur downstream from the high ice sheets. The downstream warmer temperatures are the result of (1) glacial anticyclones that cause subsidence and reduced cloud cover during summer as well as reduced soil moisture and (2) increased southwesterly flow across the Atlantic Ocean that results in increased southerly advection of warm air during winter. A dynamical effect of the high ice sheets during summer is to change the wave number of the planetary waves in the midlatitudes, whereas a thermodynamic effect of the flat ice sheets during summer is to lower the geopotential heights throughout the northern hemisphere. In general, northern hemisphere ice sheets induce both a local response over the ice sheets and a regional response downstream from the ice sheets but have little impact on the southern hemisphere except where sea ice expands.
Observed intensification of precipitation extremes, responsible for extensive societal impacts, are widely attributed to anthropogenic sources, which may include indirect effects of agricultural irrigation. However quantifying the effects of irrigation on far-downstream climate remains a challenge. We use three paired Community Earth System Model simulations to assess mechanisms of irrigation-induced precipitation trends and extremes in the conterminous US and the effect on the terrestrial carbon sink. Results suggest precipitation enhancement in the central US reduced drought conditions and increased regional carbon uptake, while further downstream, the heaviest precipitation events were more frequent and intense. Specifically, moisture advection from irrigation in the western U.S. and recycling of enhanced local convective precipitation produced very-heavy storm events that were 11% more intense and occurred 23% more frequently in the densely populated greater New York City region.
Terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitudes (above 50°N) exchange large amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 with the atmosphere each year. Here we use a process‐based model to estimate the budget of CO 2 and CH 4 of the region for current climate conditions and for future scenarios by considering effects of permafrost dynamics, CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis and fire. We find that currently the region is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere at 276 Tg C yr ‐1 . We project that throughout the 21st century, the region will most likely continue as a net source of carbon and the source will increase by up to 473 Tg C yr −1 by the end of the century compared to the current emissions. However our coupled carbon and climate model simulations show that these emissions will exert relatively small radiative forcing on global climate system compared to large amounts of anthropogenic emissions.
Urban air pollution and climate are closely connected due to shared generating processes (e.g., combustion) for emissions of the driving gases and aerosols. They are also connected because the atmospheric lifecycles of common air pollutants such as CO, NOx and VOCs, and of the climatically important methane gas (CH4) and sulfate aerosols, both involve the fast photochemistry of the hydroxyl free radical (OH). Thus policies designed to address air pollution may impact climate and vice versa. We present calculations using a model coupling economics, atmospheric chemistry, climate and ecosystems to illustrate some effects of air pollution policy alone on global warming. We consider caps on emissions of NOx, CO, volatile organic carbon, and SOx both individually and combined in two ways. These caps can lower ozone causing less warming, lower sulfate aerosols yielding more warming, lower OH and thus increase CH4 giving more warming, and finally, allow more carbon uptake by ecosystems leading to less warming. Overall, these effects significantly offset each other suggesting that air pollution policy has a relatively small net effect on the global mean surface temperature and sea level rise.However, our study does not account for the effects of air pollution policies on overall demand for fossil fuels and on the choice of fuels (coal, oil, gas), nor have we considered the effects of caps on black carbon or organic carbon aerosols on climate. These effects, if included, could lead to more substantial impacts of capping pollutant emissions on global temperature and sea level than concluded here. Caps on aerosols in general could also yield impacts on other important aspects of climate beyond those addressed here, such as the regional patterns of cloudiness and precipitation.
ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation increase is an extension of a larger region of increased precipitation in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America that is associated with a deepened and southward‐shifted Aleutian Low, a weaker subtropical high, and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The models differ in their simulation of precipitation anomalies over the southeastern U.S., with CGCM1 showing drier conditions and HadCM2 showing wetter conditions in the future. While both models show decreased frequency of Atlantic storms, consistent with decreased meridional and land/sea temperature gradients, the more coastal position of the storm track in CGCM1 results in less precipitation than modern along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. During summer, differences in land surface models within the two GCMs sometimes lead to differences in soil moisture that feed back to the precipitation over land due to available moisture.
The Paleoclimates From Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) project has been investigating methods of doing high‐resolution model‐data comparisons for the Arctic. As a prelude to a paleosimulation of the North Atlantic region, a modern simulation using observationally driven reanalysis data has been completed. The ARCSyM mesoscale model has been configured for the North Atlantic region, including Labrador, Ungava, Baffin Island, Ellesmere Island, Greenland, and Iceland, with a resolution of 70 km. This high resolution is necessary to predict sub‐GCM grid‐scale climate processes, such as precipitation and storm patterns that depend upon the detailed topography and coastlines of the region. Experiments were performed for the time period of September 1987 to March 1990, driven by observational analyses. The model accurately captures the major summer and winter circulation systems in the North Atlantic region. Comparisons with meteorological station data show high correlations for winter and summer surface temperatures, with a cold bias in winter and a warm bias in summer. Winter precipitation is well simulated by the model because it is driven by the large‐scale circulation. The orographically driven summer precipitation is overrepresented and does not correlate well with observations, although the overall pattern is correct. These results show that the model is capable of capturing the correct temperature and precipitation patterns, although grid‐to‐grid comparisons are not possible. The mesoscale model is therefore useful for regionally based data‐model comparisons, but should not be used to compare individual cores with specific model grids.
The effects of air pollution on vegetation may provide an important control on the carbon cycle that has not yet been widely considered. Prolonged exposure to high levels of ozone, in particular, has been observed to inhibit photosynthesis by direct cellular damage within the leaves and through possible changes in stomatal conductance. We have incorporated empirical equations derived for trees (hardwoods and pines) and crops into the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to explore the effects of ozone on net primary production (NPP) and carbon sequestration across the conterminous United States. Our results show a 2.6‐6.8% mean reduction for the United States in annual NPP in response to modelled historical ozone levels during the late 1980s-early 1990s. The largest decreases (over 13% in some locations) occur in the Midwest agricultural lands, during the mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Carbon sequestration since the 1950s has been reduced by 18‐38 Tg C yr −1 with the presence of ozone. Thus the effects of ozone on NPP and carbon sequestration should be factored into future calculations of the United States’ carbon budget.
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