J. Done

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

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Cindy L. Bruyère

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Greg J. Holland

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Hsu‐Feng Teng

National Taiwan University

Ying‐Hwa Kuo

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Andreas F. Prein

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

G. J. Holland

Rowan University

Ming Ge

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Debasish PaiMazumder

American International Group (United States)

Abigail Jaye

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Erin Towler

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

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NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Microscale (United States)

United States Geological Survey

U.S. National Science Foundation

Colorado State University

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

University of Washington

University of Colorado Boulder

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Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (2011)

Anil Kumar J. Done Jimy Dudhia Dev Niyogi

Synoptic scale meteorology

Forcing (mathematics)

BENGAL

10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9

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Citations (41)

Metocean Conditions in Future Hurricane Environments

Hurricane Risk/Hurricane risk (2019)

J. Done Cindy L. Bruyère Ming Ge

Significant wave height

Wave height

Storm Surge

Wind wave model

Forcing (mathematics)

Maximum sustained wind

10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_11

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Citations (1)

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Impact of domain sizes

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2009)

Arun Kumar J. Done Jimy Dudhia Dev Niyogi

BENGAL

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The Multi‐Scale Interactions of Atmospheric Phenomenon in Mean and Extreme Precipitation

Earth s Future (2023)

Andreas F. Prein Priscilla Mooney J. Done

Abstract Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, which in combination with rising population enhances exposure to major floods. An improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that cause extreme precipitation events would help to advance predictions and projections of such events. To date, such analyses have typically been performed rather unsystematically and over limited areas (e.g., the U.S.) which has resulted in contradictory findings. Here we present the Multi‐Object Analysis of Atmospheric Phenomenon algorithm that uses a set of 12 common atmospheric variables to identify and track tropical and extra‐tropical cyclones, cut‐off lows, frontal zones, anticyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs), jets, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and equatorial waves. We apply the algorithm to global historical data between 2001–2020 and associate phenomena with hourly and daily satellite‐derived extreme precipitation estimates in major climate regions. We find that MCSs produce the vast majority of extreme precipitation in the tropics and some mid‐latitude land regions, while extreme precipitation in mid and high‐latitude ocean and coastal regions are dominated by cyclones and ARs. Importantly, most extreme precipitation events are associated with phenomena interacting across scales that intensify precipitation. These interactions are a function of the intensity (i.e., rarity) of extreme events. The presented methodology and results could have wide‐ranging applications including training of machine learning methods, Lagrangian‐based evaluation of climate models, and process‐based understanding of extreme precipitation in a changing climate.

10.1029/2023ef003534

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Citations (14)

Dominant Sources of Uncertainty for Downscaled Climate: A Military Installation Perspective

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2024)

Taereem Kim Gabriele Villarini J. Done David Johnson Andreas F. Prein

Abstract While the Department of Defense (DoD) infrastructure is no stranger to extremes, recent events have been unprecedented, with climate change acting as a growing risk multiplier. To assess the level of exposure of DoD installations to extreme weather and climate events, site‐specific climate information is needed. One way to bridge the scale gap between outputs from existing global climate models (GCMs) and sites is climate downscaling. This makes the information more relevant for impact assessment at the DoD installation and facility scale. However, downscaling GCMs is beset by a myriad of challenges and sources of uncertainty, and downscaling methods were not designed with specific infrastructure planning and design needs in mind. Here, we evaluate state‐of‐the‐science dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling and bias correction for climate variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation) at the daily scale. We also combine downscaling approaches in novel ways to optimize computational efficiency and reduce uncertainty. Furthermore, we examine the sensitivity of the downscaled outputs to the choice of reference data and quantify the relative uncertainty related to downscaling approach, reference data, and other factors across the climate variables and aggregation scales. Results show that empirical quantile mapping (EQM), a statistical downscaling, consistently performs well and has less sensitivity to the choice of reference data. Moreover, the hybrid downscaling that leverages EQM improves the performance of dynamical downscaling. Our findings highlight that the choice of reference data dominates uncertainties in temperature downscaling, while their role is more muted for precipitation but still non‐negligible.

10.1029/2024jd040935

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Citations (0)

As the Wind Blows? Understanding Hurricane Damages at the Local Level through a Case Study Analysis

Weather Climate and Society (2013)

Jeffrey Czajkowski J. Done

Abstract An understanding of the potential drivers of local-scale hurricane losses is developed through a case study analysis. Two recent category-3 U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Ivan in 2004 and Dennis in 2005) are analyzed that, although similar in terms of maximum wind speed at their proximate coastal landfall locations, caused vastly different loss amounts. In contrast to existing studies that assess loss mostly at the relatively aggregate level, detailed local factors related to hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are identified. State-level raw wind insured loss data split by personal, commercial, and auto business lines are downscaled to the census tract level using the wind field. At this scale, losses are found to extend far inland and across business lines. Storm size is found to play an important role in explaining the different loss amounts by controlling not only the size of the impacted area but also the duration of damaging winds and the likelihood of large changes in wind direction. An empirical analysis of census tract losses provides further evidence for the importance of wind duration and wind directional change in addition to wind speed. The importance of exposure values however is more sensitive to assumptions in how loss data are downscaled. Appropriate consideration of these local drivers of hurricane loss may improve historical loss assessments and may also act upscale to impact future projections of hurricane losses under climate and socioeconomic change.

Landfall

Census tract

Vulnerability

10.1175/wcas-d-13-00024.1

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Citations (55)

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Oceans (2021)

Christian Domínguez J. Done Cindy L. Bruyère

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.

Cyclogenesis

African easterly jet

Tropical cyclogenesis

Tropical Atlantic

10.3390/oceans2020024

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Citations (3)

The Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Temperature Profile Change

J. Done Gary M. Lackmann Andreas F. Prein

Abstract. Theory indicates that tropical cyclone intensity should respond to changes in the vertical temperature profile. While the sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature is well understood, less is known about sensitivity to the temperature profile. In this paper, we combine historical data analysis and idealised modelling to explore the extent to which historical tropospheric warming and lower stratospheric cooling can explain observed trends in the tropical cyclone intensity distribution. Observations and modelling agree that historical global temperature profile changes coincide with higher lifetime maximum intensities. But observations suggest the response depends on the tropical cyclone intensity itself. Historical lower- and upper-tropospheric temperatures in hurricane environments have warmed significantly faster than the tropical mean. In addition, hurricane-strength storms have intensified at twice the rate of weaker storms per unit warming at the surface and at 300-hPa. Idealized simulations respond in the expected sense to various imposed changes in the temperature profile and agree with tropical cyclones operating as heat engines. Yet lower stratospheric temperature changes have little influence. Idealised modelling further shows an increasing altitude of the TC outflow but little change in outflow temperature. This enables increased efficiency for strong tropical cyclones despite the warming upper troposphere. Observed sensitivities are generally larger than modelled sensitivities, suggesting that observed tropical cyclone intensity change responds to a combination of the temperature profile change and other environmental factors.

Outflow

Intensity

African easterly jet

Tropical cyclogenesis

10.5194/wcd-2021-83

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Wave Accumulation and Tropical Cyclone Genesis

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2008)

J. Done Greg J. Holland A. Suzuki-Parker

Source

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The Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Cyclones in Past, Present, and Future Climates

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2009)

J. Done Aixue Hu E. Christa Farmer Jianjun Yin Susan E. Bates

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, ColoradoHofstra University, Hempstead, New YorkThe Florida State University, Tallahassee, FloridaUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WashingtonBoston College, Chestnut Hill, MassachusettsNASAJPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CaliforniaMcDaniel College, Westminster, MarylandThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PennsylvaniaMIT/WHOI Joint Program, Woods Hole, MassachusettsCORRESPONDING AUTHOR: James M. Done, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, E-mail: done@ucar@edu

Atmospheric research

Research center

National laboratory

10.1175/2009bams2762.1

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Citations (11)