Siwi caldera, in the Vanuatu arc (Tanna island), is a rare volcanic complex where both persistent eruptive activity (Yasur volcano) and rapid block resurgence (Yenkahe horst) can be investigated simultaneously during a post-caldera stage. Here we provide new constraints on the feeding system of this volcanic complex, based on a detailed study of the petrology, geochemistry and volatile content of Yasur–Siwi bulk-rocks and melt inclusions, combined with measurements of the chemical composition and mass fluxes of Yasur volcanic gases. Major and trace element analyses of Yasur–Siwi volcanic rocks, together with literature data for other volcanic centers, point to a single magmatic series and possibly long-lived feeding of Tanna volcanism by a homogeneous arc basalt. Olivine-hosted melt inclusions show that the parental basaltic magma, which produces basaltic-trachyandesites to trachyandesites by ∼50–70% crystal fractionation, is moderately enriched in volatiles (∼1 wt % H2O, 0·1 wt % S and 0·055 wt % Cl). The basaltic-trachyandesite magma, emplaced at between 4–5 km depth and the surface, preserves a high temperature (1107 ± 15°C) and constant H2O content (∼1 wt %) until very shallow depths, where it degasses extensively and crystallizes. These conditions, maintained over the past 1400 years of Yasur activity, require early water loss during basalt differentiation, prevalent open-system degassing, and a relatively high heat flow (∼109 W). Yasur volcano releases on average ≥ 13·4 × 103 tons d−1 of H2O and 680 tons d−1 of SO2, but moderate amounts of CO2 (840 tons d−1), HCl (165 tons d−1), and HF (23 tons d−1). Combined with melt inclusion data, these gas outputs constrain a bulk magma degassing rate of ∼5 × 107 m3 a−1, about a half of which is due to degassing of the basaltic-trachyandesite. We compute that 25 km3 of this magma have degassed without erupting and have accumulated beneath Siwi caldera over the past 1000 years, which is one order of magnitude larger than the accumulated volume uplift of the Yenkahe resurgent block. Hence, basalt supply and gradual storage of unerupted degassed basaltic-trachyandesite could easily account for (or contribute to) the Yenkahe block resurgence.
This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Methods Deposit Features Physical Features of the Erupted Material Eruptive Dynamics Comparison with other Paroxysmal Events Conclusions
Abstract In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long‐term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub‐Plinian eruption of Somma‐Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma‐Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium‐large eruption will enlarge the present Somma‐Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6–10%) that the next Plinian or sub‐Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma‐Vesuvio caldera.
